A single-page long report on Chalmers' "Resilience and reform" budget: oil shock, tax and housing, NDIS, health, defence, APS delivery, reactions, agency impact, taxpayer cost, and every idea in the research file.
Underlying cash deficit
$31.5B
$2.8B better than MYEFO
Savings package
$63.8B
largest package on record
NDIS restraint
$37.8B
160,000 fewer participants by 2030
Fuel resilience
$14.8B
$10B reserve and gas reservation
Housing investment
$47B
$2B infrastructure for 65,000 homes
Defence uplift
$53B
toward 3% of GDP by 2033
Services Australia
$2.2B
service rebuild and access channels
Productivity target
$10.2B/yr
regulatory cost reduction
Overview
This budget uses the oil shock as the case for a much larger domestic reset. The government is trying to do three things at once: cushion households and business from fuel-driven inflation, rebalance tax settings away from asset income, and take a large amount of growth out of the NDIS without breaking disability support in the transition.
For government employees, the most important question is not just "what was funded?" It is "which systems now have to absorb new demand, new rules, new eligibility tests, new complaints, new data requirements and new scrutiny?"
Core implementation risk
The budget saves money by moving risk into delivery systems. If state services, assessment tools, digital identity, contact centres, local infrastructure and provider markets are not ready, the reform becomes a frontline failure.
What each taxpayer is effectively paying for
This is a simple explainer calculation: headline initiative cost divided by 13.3 million, the budget's stated number of workers receiving the Working Australians Tax Offset. It is not a literal tax bill and it does not model who pays more tax. It makes the scale legible.
Formula: initiative dollars / 13,300,000 taxpayers. Negative numbers are savings per taxpayer, not new spending.
Defence uplift
Defence - over decade
$3,985
AUKUS, fleet, cyber, Henderson and industry base
NDIS reform
Disability - over forwards
saves $2,842.11
headline budget saving, not a service uplift
Public hospitals
Health - over forwards
$1,880
new Commonwealth hospital funding envelope
Fuel resilience package
Energy - over forwards
$1,113
fuel reserve, cleaner fuels and oil-shock response
Fuel reserve
Energy - capital/reserve
$752
strategic reserve inside the broader resilience package
PBS expansion
Health - over forwards
$444
medicines access, including high-cost listings
Aged care beds and packages
Aged care - over forwards
$226
beds, packages and free personal care changes
Services Australia rebuild
Digital service - over forwards
$165
frontline service, access channels and processing capacity
Housing-enabling infrastructure
Housing - over forwards
$150
roads, drains and power to unlock around 65,000 dwellings
Medicare Urgent Care Clinics
Health - over four years
$135
137 clinics made permanent
Counter-Terrorism Online Centre
Security - over forwards
$45
post-Bondi security and online extremism response
Active Transport Fund top-up
Transport - over forwards
$38
walking, cycling and local transport links
My Budget Impact calculator idea
Transparency - build cost
$0.02
example small digital build - about two cents per taxpayer
Portfolio and agency impact
Portfolio movement
Treasury
+$18,586M
tax reform, ATO delivery, ABS and housing architecture
Social Services
+$8,946M
DSS carries NDIS transition, JobSeeker status quo and foundational supports
Health, Disability and Ageing
+$7,443M
hospitals, PBS, urgent care, aged care and NDIA funding growth
Foreign Affairs and Trade
+$1,004M
Indo-Pacific aid pivot and diplomatic operating lift
Finance
+$896M
Services Australia uplift, DTA, Digital ID and external labour savings
Infrastructure and Transport
+$615M
housing infrastructure, SRL East, active transport and high speed rail
Defence
+$465M
AUKUS, cyber, submarine agency, housing and veteran services
Climate, Energy and Environment
-$2,422M
fuel resilience offset by department baseline and program timing shifts
Home Affairs
-$1,410M
department cut partly offset by AFP, ASIO and counter-terrorism uplifts
Industry, Science and Resources
-$323M
NRF and ANSTO uplifts inside a tighter departmental envelope
Department of the Treasury
Treasury
tax reform, macro forecasting, housing-tax settings and budget repair narrative
Department of Social Services
Social Services
NDIS transition, foundational supports and income-support pressure without a JobSeeker lift
Department of Health, Disability and Ageing
Health
public hospitals, PBS, urgent care, aged care and Thriving Kids design
National Disability Insurance Agency
Health
participant reassessment, plan-budget controls, provider registration and appeals risk
Australian Taxation Office
Treasury
negative gearing, CGT, trusts, instant deduction and worker offset administration
Department of Finance
Finance
savings discipline, APS headcount settings, consultancy controls and service rebuild
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
DFAT
ODA floor, Indo-Pacific redirect and US aid withdrawal backfill
Australian Federal Police
Home Affairs
post-Bondi security package and online counter-terrorism capability
Australian Renewable Energy Agency
DCCEEW
energy transition projects despite criticism of the broader renewables freeze
Australian Submarine Agency
Defence
AUKUS delivery, assurance and workforce pipeline
Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
DCCEEW
fuel and gas policy expands while baseline/program timing contracts
Department of Home Affairs
Home Affairs
portfolio security agencies rise while the department absorbs a large baseline reduction
Portfolio drilldowns
Oil shock and macro setting
Economic resilience
The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure are the budget's permission structure: inflation peaks near 5%, growth slows to 1.75%, and the government argues reform cannot wait.
Tax reform and housing
Tax, housing and intergenerational equity
The structural wager is a shift away from asset-income concessions toward labour-income relief, while using housing tax to redirect investor demand into new supply.
Health, aged care and NDIS
Service delivery and participant transition
Health gets the largest visible service uplift, but the NDIS overhaul is the budget's sharpest delivery and legitimacy risk.
Defence, security and veterans
National security
Defence is locked to a higher trajectory: 3% of GDP by 2033 under NATO methodology, with AUKUS and surface fleet delivery dominating the decade.
Productivity, APS and digital government
Operating model
The APS rebuild continues, but the new bargain is clear: fewer external labour shortcuts, more digital reuse, and harder measurement of regulatory burden.
Education, skills and research
Human capital
Education is an implementation budget: schools, universities and childcare continue on existing reform paths, while research advocates call out missing ambition.
Who is affected
Low and middle income workers
Impact: tax cuts, $250 offset, $1,000 deduction
Risk: relief arrives slowly and inflation may erode it
First-home buyers and renters
Impact: tax settings tilt away from established investor demand
Risk: supply response depends on planning, infrastructure and construction capacity
NDIS participants and families
Impact: access lists, reassessment, plan budgets and under-8 pathways change
Risk: state alternatives may not exist when participants are moved
JobSeeker recipients
Impact: no base-rate lift for the third budget in a row
Risk: cost-of-living package largely misses people without taxable income
Public hospital patients
Impact: hospital funding, PBS expansion and UCC permanence
Risk: state workforce and ramping pressures remain
Public servants
Impact: more reform delivery with consultancy restraint
Risk: capability gaps move inside agencies unless funded and sequenced
Defence industry and shipbuilding regions
Impact: AUKUS, Henderson and surface fleet pipeline
Risk: skills, clearances and infrastructure timing
Property investors and discretionary trusts
Impact: negative gearing, CGT and 30% trust tax changes
Risk: asset-price, rent and investment behaviour are contested
Ideas explorer (84)
Department
Size
Showing 84 of 84 ideas from `Research/budget-2026-27-analysis/ideas.csv`.
B26-001. Sunset the negative-gearing grandfather over 10 years
Treasury - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Reduces tax expenditure ~$15B over decade
Needed: Legislative amendment converting grandfather to 10-year taper
Achieves: Closes the half-measure that protects existing investors forever — actually rebalances asset vs labour income
SourceB26-002. Replace CGT 30% minimum tax with inflation indexation only
Treasury - industry - Business Council of Australia
Money: Forgoes ~$3-5B over forwards
Needed: Amend CGT package to drop 30% floor; keep indexation
Achieves: Restores investment incentive while still taxing real (not nominal) gains
SourceB26-003. One-property cap on negative gearing
Treasury - union - ACTU / Sally McManus
Money: Raises ~$2B/yr more than new-builds-only
Needed: Tighter NG cap legislated alongside new-builds-only
Achieves: Limits investor accumulation to a single rental property — more aggressive intergenerational rebalance
SourceB26-004. 25% CGT discount (not 30% min) + Help to Buy expanded to 30,000 places
Treasury - crossbench - Senator David Pocock
Money: Help to Buy at 30k places costs ~$1.5B over forwards
Needed: Amend tax package; expand existing Help to Buy scheme
Achieves: Tilts the tax mix further toward owner-occupiers and triples shared-equity capacity
SourceB26-005. 30% CGT discount + 2.5pp cut to every marginal income tax rate
Treasury - crossbench - Allegra Spender MP
Money: Revenue-neutral via base broadening
Needed: Full Personal Tax White Paper architecture
Achieves: Comprehensive structural restructure rather than the budget's partial fix
SourceB26-006. Gas export windfall levy ringfenced to climate transition + bill relief
Treasury - political - Australian Greens / Senator Larissa Waters
Money: Raises ~$17B/yr (Greens estimate)
Needed: Levy on LNG export profits above defined threshold
Achieves: Captures the LNG boom for public benefit; funds climate spend Labor scrapped
SourceB26-007. Front-load the $250 Working Australians Tax Offset as a 2026 energy rebate
Treasury - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: No net cost; brings forward 2027-28 spend
Needed: Treasury amendment to pay 2027-28 offset in 2026-27 instead
Achieves: Cost-of-living relief lands NOW not in 2028 — addresses the '$4.81/week in 2028' attack
SourceB26-008. Make $1,000 instant deduction $2,000
Treasury - industry - ACCI / Andrew McKellar
Money: Costs ~$500M/yr
Needed: Increase no-receipts threshold
Achieves: Doubles the simplification benefit for SMEs and low-claim workers
SourceB26-009. Wealth tax on net wealth over $50M
Treasury - political - Australian Greens
Money: Raises ~$5-7B/yr (Greens estimate)
Needed: New annual levy on net assets above threshold
Achieves: Captures Australia's 161 billionaires; structural inequality response
SourceB26-010. Repeal Stage 3 cuts for highest earners
Treasury - political - Australian Greens
Money: Raises ~$15B/yr
Needed: Reverse the 2024 Stage 3 amendments above $190k
Achieves: Reduces tax inequality at the top
SourceB26-011. Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) tightening — Senate inquiry
Treasury - crossbench - Senator David Pocock
Money: Raises ~$3-5B over forwards depending on settings
Needed: Senate inquiry → legislative amendment
Achieves: Captures more gas-export resource rent for the Commonwealth
SourceB26-012. Working-capital reinvestment exemption from 30% trust tax
Treasury - industry - Family Business Association
Money: ~$200M/yr forgone
Needed: Carve-out for productive reinvestment within trust
Achieves: Protects genuine family business succession from blanket 30% rate
SourceB26-013. Social impact rental tax class — keep 50% CGT if rent <80% market for 5 years
Treasury - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Cost ~$300M/yr — partially offsets affordable-housing subsidies
Needed: New tax class created in 1 July 2027 reforms
Achieves: Channels investor capital into affordable rent instead of pushing it elsewhere
SourceB26-014. Vacant property tax — federal split 50/50 with councils
Treasury - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Raises ~$1B/yr (~150k empty homes nationally)
Needed: New federal levy on dwellings vacant >6 months/yr
Achieves: Activates 150,000 empty homes; complements Vic state model nationally
SourceB26-015. $10,000 federal first-home buyer grant for new builds
Treasury - industry - Master Builders / Coalition
Money: Costs ~$700M/yr
Needed: New grant program complementing 5% deposits
Achieves: Restores Coalition-era HomeBuilder demand signal targeted at supply
SourceB26-016. $20B Public Housing Investment Fund
Social Services - political - Australian Greens / Senator Barbara Pocock
Money: $20B over decade
Needed: New federal public-housing fund alongside HAFF
Achieves: Adds direct public-housing build pipeline beyond market-based HAFF returns
SourceB26-017. Federal minimum tenancy standards floor (no-cause evictions banned)
Attorney-General's - welfare - ACOSS / Tenants Union
Money: Conditional on state housing-funding flow
Needed: Federal-state agreement tied to housing funding
Achieves: Creates a national floor of renter protections that today only exists in some states
SourceB26-018. Build-to-rent super performance test explicit credit
Treasury - industry - Industry Super Australia
Money: No fiscal cost; reallocates super capital
Needed: Performance test reform clarifying housing as productive
Achieves: Unlocks $4.5T super sector for build-to-rent at scale
SourceB26-019. Foreign buyer levy applied to new builds (not just established)
Treasury - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Raises ~$400M/yr
Needed: Extend existing foreign-buyer ban with a levy on new-build foreign purchases
Achieves: Captures foreign-investor premium and discourages 'investor-grade' new builds
SourceB26-020. Construction-skills migration visa (40,000 places)
Home Affairs - industry - Master Builders Australia
Money: Costs ~$60M admin
Needed: New visa class targeting trade qualifications
Achieves: Addresses the trades shortfall blocking the 1.2M housing target
SourceB26-021. $2B housing infrastructure conditional on planning approval times <12 months
Infrastructure - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: No new cost — conditionality on existing $2B
Needed: Federal grant conditions
Achieves: Forces state planning reform as price of the federal cheque
SourceB26-022. Universal Foundational Supports outside NDIS
Social Services - sector - NDIS Review (Bonyhady) / Inclusion Australia
Money: $3B provision already; need $19.3B over 4 years
Needed: Joint Commonwealth-state delivery framework with legislated minimums
Achieves: Saves NDIS $19.3B over 4 years and supports 1-in-5 Australians with disability outside the scheme
SourceB26-023. Thriving Kids state readiness veto
Social Services - crossbench - Senator David Pocock
Money: No cost; legislated check
Needed: NDIS Amendment Bill clause: no participant transitioned out until state alternative operational in their region
Achieves: Stops the 'burn the house down' risk Inclusion Australia flagged
SourceB26-024. NDIS Exit Bridge — automatic 12 months foundational supports for participants losing access
Social Services - sector - Every Australian Counts
Money: Costs ~$1.5B over forwards
Needed: New transitional support program in Securing the NDIS Bill
Achieves: Closes the trapdoor for the 160,000 set to lose access by 2030
SourceB26-025. Public functional-capacity assessment standard with appeal pathway
Social Services - sector - Inclusion Australia / PWDA
Money: Costs ~$50M admin
Needed: Assessment criteria published; NDIS Appeals Panel resourced
Achieves: Stops the 'guilty until proven disabled' Robodebt comparison
SourceB26-026. Cultural Safety veto on First Nations NDIS transitions
Indigenous Australians - sector - First Peoples Disability Network
Money: No cost; legislated
Needed: Joint NIAA-NDIA cultural-safety framework with FN community veto
Achieves: Prevents culturally unsafe transitions where local alternatives don't exist
SourceB26-027. NDIS Appeals & Plan Reviews public dashboard
Social Services - editorial - YourGov analysis / EAC
Money: ~$5M dev/yr
Needed: NDIA mandated to publish appeals, AAT outcomes, plan-cut data monthly
Achieves: Transparency on the actual operational impact of overhaul
SourceB26-028. NDIS Provider Sustainability Index
Social Services - sector - PWDA / providers
Money: ~$3M/yr
Needed: NDIA tracks provider entry/exit by region, publishes quarterly
Achieves: Identifies regions where the NDIS market is collapsing
SourceB26-029. NDIS workforce visa for disability support workers
Home Affairs - union - Australian Services Union
Money: ~$80M admin
Needed: New occupation list addition; workforce planning agreement
Achieves: Counters the disability workforce contraction risk ACTU flagged
SourceB26-030. Bulk-billing GP guarantee for under-16s
Health, Disability and Ageing - sector - RACGP / AMA
Money: Costs ~$2.5B/yr
Needed: Bulk-billing incentive for all GP visits by children <16
Achieves: Removes paediatric financial barrier; reduces ED presentations
SourceB26-031. Free dental for under-18s on Medicare
Health, Disability and Ageing - sector - Australian Medical Association
Money: Costs ~$1.5B/yr
Needed: Extension of Child Dental Benefits Schedule to universal coverage
Achieves: Adds dental to Medicare — single highest-impact preventive measure for kids
SourceB26-032. Means-test the over-65s private health rebate scrap
Health, Disability and Ageing - sector - National Seniors Australia
Money: Forgoes ~$200M/yr vs full scrap
Needed: Income-test the rebate cut so only highest-income over-65s lose it
Achieves: Protects working-class retirees from the 21% premium spike
SourceB26-033. 24/7 GP after-hours via telehealth
Health, Disability and Ageing - sector - RACGP
Money: Costs ~$400M/yr
Needed: New telehealth MBS items + state co-payment
Achieves: Cuts ED ramping; UCC complement
SourceB26-034. Standalone National Anti-Vape Centre
Health, Disability and Ageing - sector - Australian Medical Association
Money: ~$50M/yr
Needed: New centre + state enforcement
Achieves: Sustained enforcement of vape import ban
SourceB26-035. Aged care + nursing workforce skilled visa
Home Affairs - industry - Aged & Community Care Providers Association
Money: ~$80M admin
Needed: Expand priority migration occupation list
Achieves: Closes the 12% Royal Commission workforce gap
SourceB26-036. AUKUS supply chain transparency dashboard
Defence - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: ~$5M/yr
Needed: Defence publishes contract-level data on AUKUS supply chain
Achieves: Tracks $96B Australia-share spend; builds accountability
SourceB26-037. Defence housing for Australian service families (not just US/UK)
Defence - crossbench - Senator Barbara Pocock
Money: Reallocate $110M AUKUS housing
Needed: Defence Housing Australia expansion
Achieves: Addresses the optics of $110M for foreign-troop housing while domestic ADF families wait
SourceB26-038. AUKUS workforce jobs guarantee in shipbuilding regions
Defence - industry - Defence industry / SA-WA state govts
Money: ~$200M/yr
Needed: Federal-state apprenticeship + skills program tied to AUKUS
Achieves: Locks in workforce ahead of Henderson/Osborne build-out
SourceB26-039. Veteran claims wait-time public dashboard
Veterans' Affairs - sector - RSL NSW
Money: ~$2M/yr
Needed: DVA publishes wait times by claim type monthly
Achieves: Operationalises the $800M Royal Commission response
SourceB26-040. Veteran advocacy workforce funding boost
Veterans' Affairs - sector - RSL NSW
Money: ~$50M/yr
Needed: Expand existing free veteran advocacy program
Achieves: Advocacy workforce is the binding constraint on claim processing
SourceB26-041. Neighbourhood battery program
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - sector - Climate Council
Money: $2B over 4 years
Needed: Federal grants to councils/community energy retailers
Achieves: Street-level resilience vs fuel reserve at federal scale
SourceB26-042. Capacity Investment Scheme extension
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - sector - Climate Council
Money: ~$10B over decade
Needed: CIS rounds 5+ scheduled
Achieves: Reverses Labor's 'renewables freeze' flagged by SMH pre-budget
SourceB26-043. E-bike rebate $1,500/household
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - sector - Bicycle Network Australia
Money: ~$300M/yr
Needed: Means-tested rebate scheme
Achieves: Active-transport companion to Active Transport Fund
SourceB26-044. National Climate Insurance Pool (cyclone/fire/flood)
Treasury - industry - Insurance Council of Australia
Money: ~$10B initial capitalisation
Needed: Reinsurance Australia extended to all climate perils
Achieves: Addresses 14% YoY premium increases; protects northern Australia insurability
SourceB26-045. Net Zero Authority real legislated powers
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - sector - Climate Council
Money: Reallocate existing baseline
Needed: Legislation upgrades NZA from advisory to decisional
Achieves: Centralises transition policy; matches scale of $42.3B household package
SourceB26-046. Ethanol mandate (E10 minimum) in fuel supply
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - crossbench - Bob Katter MP / KAP
Money: ~$200M/yr admin
Needed: Federal fuel standard amendment
Achieves: Reduces oil-import dependence; supports grain growers
SourceB26-047. EV salary-packaging means-test
Treasury - independent - Productivity Commission / Danielle Wood
Money: Saves ~$300M/yr extra
Needed: Income-test the FBT exemption for over-$180k earners
Achieves: Targets the EV subsidy at middle earners not Tesla salary-packagers
SourceB26-048. Federal coal/gas project moratorium
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - political - Australian Greens
Money: Net positive ~$2B over forwards (forgone subsidies)
Needed: Moratorium on new federal approvals
Achieves: Halt new fossil capacity build-out while transition incomplete
SourceB26-049. Lift Commonwealth share to 100% SRS by 2030 (not 25% by 2034)
Education - union - Australian Education Union
Money: ~$18B over 4 years
Needed: Accelerate Better Schools Funding ramp
Achieves: Closes the public schools funding gap a decade earlier
SourceB26-050. End Job-ready Graduates fee bands
Education - sector - Universities Australia
Money: ~$1B/yr
Needed: Repeal 2020 HE Support Amendment
Achieves: Removes the punitive humanities/arts fee differential
SourceB26-051. Free TAFE expansion to 100,000 places/yr
Education - sector - TAFE Directors Australia
Money: ~$700M/yr
Needed: Expand existing Free TAFE program
Achieves: Doubles capacity in priority sectors (aged care, construction, EV trades)
SourceB26-052. R&D investment target — 3% of GDP by 2030
Industry, Science and Resources - sector - Universities Australia
Money: ~$15B/yr by 2030
Needed: Legislated R&D investment target with annual reporting
Achieves: Reverses the 1.7% slide; matches OECD median
SourceB26-053. Doctoral stipend +$10,000/yr
Education - sector - Universities Australia
Money: ~$200M/yr
Needed: Lift RTP stipend baseline
Achieves: Retains research talent against private-sector and US salaries
SourceB26-054. Universal free preschool for 3-year-olds
Education - sector - Mitchell Institute
Money: ~$2.5B/yr
Needed: Federal-state agreement extending entitlement
Achieves: Closes the early-learning gap; female workforce participation gain
SourceB26-055. Childcare worker wage rise +25% (above current 15%)
Education - union - United Workers Union
Money: ~$1.5B/yr
Needed: Multi-employer bargaining + federal supplement
Achieves: Stems educator exodus; matches aged care wage uplift
SourceB26-056. JobSeeker to 70% of pension
Social Services - welfare - ACOSS / Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee
Money: ~$5.5B/yr
Needed: Base-rate increase + indexation lift
Achieves: EIAC recommendation finally adopted; lifts 3.7M out of poverty
SourceB26-057. Single Parent Payment until child is 16
Social Services - sector - NCSMC
Money: ~$700M/yr
Needed: Reverse Howard-era PPS-to-Newstart at age 8
Achieves: Restores income for single parents during high-cost years
SourceB26-058. 30% boost to Commonwealth Rent Assistance
Social Services - welfare - ACOSS
Money: ~$2.2B/yr
Needed: CRA rate increase + indexation review
Achieves: CRA hasn't kept pace with rents (rents up 44% in 5 yrs)
SourceB26-059. Disability Support Pension auto-process for NDIS exits
Social Services - sector - PWDA
Money: ~$30M admin
Needed: Joint DSS-NDIA data-share
Achieves: Prevents NDIS exiters falling into Centrelink wait-time gap
SourceB26-060. Energy bill rebate uplift for income support recipients
Social Services - welfare - ACOSS
Money: ~$400M/yr
Needed: Top-up to existing $150 rebate for ConcessionCard holders
Achieves: Targets cost-of-living help at those least likely to benefit from $250 offset
SourceB26-061. Counter-Terrorism Online Centre civil oversight panel
Home Affairs - sector - Liberty Victoria
Money: ~$3M/yr
Needed: Independent oversight panel reporting to PJC-IS
Achieves: Civil-liberties guardrails on the new $600M centre
SourceB26-062. Refugee humanitarian intake to 27,000
Home Affairs - sector - Refugee Council of Australia
Money: ~$300M/yr
Needed: Lift planning level from 20,000
Achieves: Returns intake to pre-Coalition baseline
SourceB26-063. Skilled migration program to 200,000
Home Affairs - sector - Migration Council of Australia
Money: Net positive fiscal
Needed: Lift permanent program from 185,000
Achieves: Addresses structural skills gaps in health, construction, tech
SourceB26-064. ACCO funding share floor — 50% of CTG measures
Indigenous Australians - sector - Coalition of Peaks
Money: Reallocate within existing $1.2B
Needed: Federal commitment via National Agreement
Achieves: Forces 'community-controlled' to be more than rhetoric — Coalition of Peaks acid test
SourceB26-065. Federal Treaty process funding
Indigenous Australians - sector - First Nations advocacy
Money: ~$500M over 4 years
Needed: Establish national Treaty framework alongside state processes
Achieves: Builds on Voice referendum loss with deliverable structural reform
SourceB26-066. Stolen Generations reparations scheme
Indigenous Australians - sector - Reconciliation Australia
Money: ~$1B one-off
Needed: National scheme aligned with state precedents
Achieves: Outstanding national obligation
SourceB26-067. AI Safety Institute with regulatory powers
Industry, Science and Resources - industry - Tech Council of Australia
Money: ~$30M scaling
Needed: Legislate AISI powers beyond monitoring/sharing
Achieves: UK-model regulator that can require model evaluations
SourceB26-068. Battery cell manufacturing IRA-scale subsidy
Industry, Science and Resources - industry - Manufacturing Australia
Money: ~$5B over decade
Needed: Future Made in Australia tax credit expansion
Achieves: Australia keeps battery value-add domestically vs IRA pull to US
SourceB26-069. Tech Council $167B GDP plan implementation
Industry, Science and Resources - industry - Tech Council of Australia
Money: Net positive (private investment unlock)
Needed: Package of R&D, AI, skills, venture-capital and copyright reforms
Achieves: Implements TCA's full $167B GDP-uplift agenda
SourceB26-070. Open-data API mandate for every federal agency
Prime Minister and Cabinet - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: ~$50M build
Needed: Federal directive + agency CTO accountability
Achieves: Operationalises the 'tell us once' promise across 2,280 entities
SourceB26-071. APS consultancy ratio cap
Finance - union - CPSU
Money: ~$1B savings/yr
Needed: Cap external-labour spend at 5% of departmental expenses
Achieves: Locks in the $2.7B clawback as a permanent rule not annual saving
SourceB26-072. Inland Rail Melbourne-Brisbane formal wind-down plan
Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts - industry - Australian Logistics Council
Money: Saves ~$2B over forwards
Needed: ARTC mandated to release exit/transition plan
Achieves: Stops $15B sunk-cost confusion; releases land for alternative use
SourceB26-073. NSW infrastructure top-up to match Vic SRL grant
Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts - state - NSW Premier Chris Minns
Money: ~$3.8B (matching Vic)
Needed: Federal-NSW infrastructure agreement
Achieves: Defuses the Minns-Allan GST/SRL fight
SourceB26-074. Active Transport Fund permanence
Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts - sector - Bicycle Network Australia
Money: $500M/yr ongoing
Needed: Legislate ATF as continuing program not budget-line
Achieves: Locks in modal-shift gain
SourceB26-075. Federal council infrastructure floor
Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts - sector - Australian Local Government Association
Money: ~$1.5B/yr
Needed: Per-capita formula for Financial Assistance Grants restored to 1% of Cwlth tax
Achieves: Reverses the 30-year decline in council funding share
SourceB26-076. Drought policy reform — multi-year RIC capacity
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry - sector - National Farmers' Federation
Money: ~$2B over forwards
Needed: Extend RIC mandate + lift cap
Achieves: SA-Vic drought now in year 2; current settings inadequate
SourceB26-077. Biosecurity cost recovery on importers
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry - sector - National Farmers' Federation
Money: Cost-neutral via importer levies
Needed: Levy importers based on actual biosecurity service cost
Achieves: Sustainable funding for biosecurity vs single-incursion blow-out risk
SourceB26-078. Universal Voluntary Patient Enrolment
Health, Disability and Ageing - sector - AMA / RACGP
Money: ~$1B/yr
Needed: Scale MyMedicare to universal opt-in
Achieves: Aligns funding with continuity of care; reduces ED reliance
SourceB26-079. Compliance Burden Index — quarterly by department
Prime Minister and Cabinet - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: ~$5M/yr
Needed: PM&C mandates index publication
Achieves: Forces $10.2B/yr deregulation claim to be measurable per agency
SourceB26-080. My Budget Impact public calculator
Treasury - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: ~$300k build
Needed: Embed on yourgov.com.au + ATO API
Achieves: Citizen-facing tool showing personal impact of every measure
SourceB26-081. Broken Promise Tracker — 2025 election commitments
Prime Minister and Cabinet - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Editorial product
Needed: Live tracking of every 2025 commitment with RAG status
Achieves: Slots into existing /reports/performance-to-strategy
SourceB26-082. Thriving Kids Readiness Audit — state-by-state quarterly
Social Services - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Editorial product
Needed: Quarterly state scorecard of Thriving Kids readiness
Achieves: Owns the implementation-watch beat for 18+ months
SourceB26-083. EV charging gap map per LGA
Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Editorial product
Needed: Overlay charging stations on $2B housing-enabling infra LGAs
Achieves: Identifies suburbs getting new dwellings but no charging
SourceB26-084. Hospital ED wait-time live dashboard per hospital
Health, Disability and Ageing - editorial - YourGov analysis
Money: Editorial product
Needed: Pull AIHW + state PHN data into a unified dashboard
Achieves: Citizens see if the $25B hospital uplift actually moves wait times
SourceReactions and pressure points
Coalition
"Broken promises, higher taxes, lower living standards and fewer homes."
Main attack is trust: negative gearing and CGT were ruled out before the election.
Greens
"Tinkering around the edges."
They want JobSeeker lifted, fossil-fuel revenue captured and housing reforms pushed harder.
ACTU
"Long-overdue cost-of-living recognition for the workers who held the economy up."
Supportive on worker tax relief, less settled on insecure work and NDIS workforce effects.
ACOSS
"Tax cuts will not help those with the least."
Welcomes asset-side rebalance but sees JobSeeker omission as the moral failure.
AMA
"The announcement alone will not be enough to stop the decline in hospital performance."
Funding is welcome, but system reform and workforce capacity remain unresolved.
Property Council
"We won't get more supply of new homes if we hike taxes on investment in that supply."
The property sector will fight the housing-tax package on supply grounds.
Universities Australia
"A missed opportunity to build on the government's recent investments."
Research and innovation advocates see Accord implementation without a research step-change.
Climate Council
"Reservation must be an exit ramp for expensive gas."
Supports resilience logic only if it speeds the energy transition rather than locking gas in.
Inclusion Australia
"You can't burn the house down until there's somewhere else for people to go."
The clearest warning on NDIS transition sequencing.
Sources
This page is hand-transcribed from `Research/budget-2026-27-analysis`: 21 markdown research notes, the entity impact CSV and the full ideas CSV.