Independent review of the Digital Transformation Agency's Major Digital Projects Report 2026 — the third annual report under the Commonwealth Assurance Framework. Covering 124 projects across 43 federal agencies: $11.30B total budget · $6.39B digital. The 21 Tier 1 flagships, the 20 that improved and 15 that worsened year-on-year, the hard-deadline risk register, the citizen-cohort heatmap and the structural gaps the MDPR is not allowed to show.
124
Projects in 2026 register
103 active · 18 closed · 3 paused
$11.3B
Total reported budget
$6.39B digital · 17 portfolios · 43 agencies
21
Tier 1 flagships
Most complex · deepest oversight
20 / 15
Improved / worsened YoY
80 unchanged · 9 new to assurance
The MDPR is the closest thing Australia has to a public scoreboard for federal digital delivery. Every year the DTA publishes a project-by-project register with budgets, tier, status, and a five-band Delivery Confidence Assessment. The headline most outlets quote — “103 active projects, $9.7B” — is a partial view: the full 2026 dataset also includes 18 closed and 3 paused projects, taking the total Commonwealth digital portfolio under MDPR oversight to 124 projects, $11,299.1M total, $6,388.1M digital.
This review re-cuts the register four ways: year-on-year DCA delta (who improved, who slipped); citizen-cohort mapping (whose service-of-government is being modernised); Strategy alignment (which of the 5 missions of the Data & Digital Government Strategy each project actually serves); and a hard-deadline risk register (Payday Super 1 July 2026, the 2026 Census, AEC Indigo for the next federal election). Source is the published MDPR-2026 + data.gov.au dataset.
Three patterns this register shows
Published 9 February 2026, updated 17 March 2026. DTA CEO Chris Fechner; Simon Quarrell, Deputy CEO — Digital Investment Advice and Sourcing.
How 124 project DCAs moved 2025 → 2026
Unchanged
80 (65%)
Improved
20 (16%)
Worsened
15 (12%)
New to assurance (first DCA)
9 (7%)
On a count basis most projects didn't move. The DTA's positive narrative is dollar-weighted — see the panel right.
The DTA's headline (dollar-weighted)
Tier 1 Low / Medium-Low share
20%
2025
→
5.6%
2026
Tier 1 investment in Medium-High or High
39.4%
2025
→
74.2%
2026
True dollar-weighted — Aged Care Transformation (Low → Medium-High, $705.9M + $692.8M) does most of this lift on its own. The count-basis picture (left) is more nuanced.
Every Tier 1 project has a published DCA. Click a flagship for the description, DCA history, dates and budget split. Source: DTA MDPR-2026 register.
$322.9M
Digital Services to Take Farmers to Markets (TFTM)
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
NFP
Australian Energy Market Operator Digital Systems Enhancement Program
Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
$39.8M
ROBUST Transition Program
Bureau of Meteorology
$32.4M
Tertiary Collection of Student Information (TCSI) Renewal Project
Department of Education
$41.8M
VSLConnect Project
Department of Employment and Workplace Relations
$408.2M
Digital ID Program
Department of Finance
NFP
Election Systems Modernisation Program (Indigo)
Australian Electoral Commission
NFP
Funding and Disclosure Reform Program
Australian Electoral Commission
$487.6M
Health Delivery Modernisation (HDM)
Services Australia
$106.2M
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Digital Uplift
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
$705.9M
Aged Care Transformation Program - Support at Home
Department of Health, Disability and Ageing
$692.8M
Aged Care Transformation Program – New Aged Care Act
Department of Health, Disability and Ageing
$160.3M
Data and Regulatory Transformation (DART) Program
NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission
$194.3M
Reduce Waste and Combat Fraud – Crack Down on Fraud
National Disability Insurance Agency
$373.7M
National Criminal Intelligence System (NCIS)
Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission
$225M
Big Data, Timely Insights (BDTI)
Australian Bureau of Statistics
$187M
Counter Fraud Program (Protecting against fraud and strengthening system integrity)
Australian Taxation Office
$70M
Foreign Investment Digital Transformation (FIDT) Program
Department of the Treasury
$403.3M
Payday Super Program
Australian Taxation Office
$361.5M
RegistryConnect Program
Australian Securities and Investments Commission
$18.2M
ObjectStar to DB2 Migration
Department of Veterans’ Affairs
Digital Services to Take Farmers to Markets (TFTM)
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry · Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Total
$322.9M
Digital
$322.9M
End
June 2026
DCA history
2024
→
2025
→
2026
The TFTM program is transforming Australia’s agricultural export systems with the delivery of contemporary digital products and services for trade and exporter engagement. Tranche 1 established the foundations for the digital reforms by uplifting existing systems onto modern and reliable platforms and developing new digital services. Tranche 2 builds on the capabilities delivered in Tranche 1 by delivering a dynamic program of work that enables the department to be a risk-based, data-enabled regulator.
Largest budget first. The Aged Care Transformation pair does most of the dollar-weighted lift.
| Project | Agency | From → To | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Aged Care Transformation – Support at Home | Health | Low → Medium-High | $706M |
Aged Care Transformation – New Aged Care Act | Health | Medium-Low → Medium-High | $693M |
Payday Super Program Still lowest Tier 1 confidence | ATO | Low → Medium-Low | $403M |
Digital Services to Take Farmers to Markets (TFTM) | DAFF | Medium-Low → Medium-High | $323M |
Big Data, Timely Insights (BDTI) | ATO | Medium → Medium-High | $225M |
Crack Down on Fraud | Services Australia | Medium → High | $194M |
ITSI Tranche (specific) | Defence/intel | Medium-Low → Medium | $159M |
AML/CTF Reform | AUSTRAC | Medium-Low → High | $159M |
Simplified Targeting & Enhanced Processing (STEPS) | DAFF | Medium-Low → Medium | $145M |
Establishing the National Environmental Protection Agency Now paused | DCCEEW | Medium-Low → Medium | $121M |
Pillar 2 Global Minimum Tax | ATO | Medium → Medium-High | $111M |
Education Funding System | Education | Medium-Low → Medium-High | $88.0M |
DOLARS replacement | DEWR | Medium → Medium-High | $44.3M |
NAFIS NextGen | ACIC | Medium-High → High | $40.2M |
ROBUST Transition Program | Bureau of Meteorology | Medium-High → High | $39.8M |
Reporting and Program Management System | Productivity Commission | Medium-High → High | $30.8M |
Digital Trade Accelerator Projects | DFAT | Medium-High → High | $29.9M |
Visa Modernisation / Sustaining Visa Processing | Home Affairs | Medium-High → High | $24.2M |
Polling Place Technology Project Closed after improving | AEC | Medium → High | $15.5M |
Parliamentary Expenses Management Enhancement | Parliamentary Depts | Medium-High → Medium-High | $11.2M |
AEC Indigo dropping a band is the single most concerning item — administers the next federal election (due by Sep 2028). DFAT has two projects slipping in 2026, suggesting a portfolio-level capacity issue.
| Project | Agency | From → To | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
ITSI Tranche (specific) | Security agency | Medium-High → Medium | $145M |
DFAT Digital Uplift DFAT portfolio-level capacity issue | DFAT | Medium-High → Medium | $106M |
International Communications Network Stabilisation DFAT portfolio-level capacity issue | DFAT | High → Medium-High | $90.2M |
New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) Regulator + IT Penalty regime live from 1 Jul 2025 | DCCEEW | Medium-High → Medium | $79.2M |
Parent Pathways | DEWR | Medium-High → Medium | $68.7M |
Safely Connecting Australians with Support | Services Australia | High → Medium-High | $49.5M |
Cyber Digital Transformation X (Cyber DTx) | Home Affairs | Medium-High → Medium | $45.5M |
VSLConnect Project Political-sensitivity legacy | DEWR | Medium-High → Medium | $41.8M |
Case Management Solution (CMS) Program MDPR escalation protocols | Administrative Review Tribunal | Medium-High → Medium-Low | $29.6M |
Contract Market Monitoring | AER / DCCEEW | Medium → Medium-Low | $26.0M |
Streamlining the Cargo Intervention Model (SCIM) | Home Affairs | High → Medium | $25.2M |
Digital Transformation (VET Sector Integrity) | DEWR | High → Medium-High | $24.8M |
ObjectStar to DB2 Migration | ATO | Medium-High → Medium | $18.2M |
Data and Digital Transformation | (agency) | Medium → Medium-Low | $3.2M |
Election Systems Modernisation Program (Indigo) Federal election due by Sep 2028 | AEC | Medium-High → Medium | NFP |
Health + Treasury alone hold half the entire federal digital portfolio. Home Affairs and Agriculture have the highest digital-spend ratios (88% each); DCCEEW has the most projects (20) but the lowest digital share among majors (41%) — capital-heavy regulatory + measurement scope.
1.
Health, Disability and Ageing
· 20 projects · digital 51%
$2,985.3M
cum. 26%
2.
Treasury
· 17 projects · digital 54%
$2,686.7M
cum. 50%
3.
Finance
· 13 projects · digital 42%
$1,387.8M
cum. 63%
4.
Home Affairs
· 13 projects · digital 88%
$907.4M
cum. 71%
5.
Climate Change, Energy, Environment & Water
· 20 projects · digital 41%
$787.8M
cum. 78%
6.
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
· 6 projects · digital 88%
$794.8M
cum. 85%
7.
Industry, Science and Resources
· 6 projects · digital 24%
$574.8M
cum. 90%
Digital component
Non-digital scope (change-mgmt, training, BAU, capital works)
These dates can't move — legislation, election, international obligation. The agency has to land delivery on or before.
Payday Super
1 July 2026 (legislated)
Highest Tier 1 risk on the register — improved from Low but still lowest confidence band of any Tier 1 project
2026 Census
11 August 2026 (Census night)
$726M — single largest project on the register. Live operational cliff
Pillar 2 Global Minimum Tax
Annual returns from FY26
Improved from Medium — OECD-led international obligation
AML/CTF Tranche 2 reform
1 July 2026 (Bill timing)
Improved from Medium-Low — AUSTRAC ahead of curve
AEC Indigo (election systems)
Federal election due by Sep 2028
Slipped from Medium-High — Tranche 2A 2027 complete, Tranche 2B not yet funded
New Aged Care Act
1 July 2025 + ongoing
Improved from Medium-Low — biggest single positive movement on the register
Tagging by cohort (heuristic, project-name + description). The right-hand column names the one project per cohort that determines whether the government delivers for that group over the next 18 months.
| Cohort | Projects | Tier 1 | Examples | Highest-leverage project |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxpayers, super members and businesses | 32 | 5 | Payday Super · Pillar 2 Min Tax · RegistryConnect · BDTI · AML/CTF | Payday Super — the most-at-risk Tier 1 project |
| Businesses dealing with government | 32 | 4 | RegistryConnect · FIDT (closed) · TFTM · Visa Modernisation · Digital Trade | RegistryConnect (ASIC) — consolidating 30+ registries |
| Patients and aged-care recipients | 32 | 4 | Aged Care Transformation ×2 · HDM (closed) · Vaping regulatory | Aged Care Transformation — Support at Home |
| Energy and climate-affected households | 30 | 2 | AEMO Digital Systems · NVES Regulator · ROBUST · NEPA (paused) | ROBUST Transition (BoM) — improved Medium-High → High |
| Maritime, transport and infrastructure | 26 | 0 | Various agency-specific | STEPS — biosecurity targeting |
| Defence and national-security | 17 | 0 | NCIS · NAFIS NextGen · AML/CTF · Cyber DTx · ITSI | NCIS — central intelligence-sharing platform |
| Students and jobseekers | 17 | 2 | TCSI Renewal · VSLConnect · Education Funding System · Parent Pathways | Education Funding System — improved Medium-Low → Medium-High |
| Welfare recipients and families | 16 | 1 | Crack Down on Fraud · Safely Connecting Australians · child welfare | Crack Down on Fraud — improved Medium → High |
| Farmers and exporters | 13 | 1 | TFTM · STEPS · CapSTAR · CSA Climate Services | TFTM — improved Medium-Low → Medium-High |
| Travellers, migrants and visa applicants | 6 | 0 | Visa Modernisation / Digitisation programs | Sustaining Visa Processing — improved Medium-High → High |
| Voters | 4 | 1 | AEC Indigo · Polling Place Tech | AEC Indigo — slipped Medium-High → Medium |
| Veterans and families | 4 | 0 | Veterans Compensation and Rehabilitation Reform | Veterans Compensation and Rehabilitation Reform |
Cohorts that are structurally invisible to MDPR
Indigenous Australians
Closing-the-Gap digital work flows through portfolio-level programs (NIAA, Health, Education) — no project explicitly framed as First Nations service delivery.
People with disability
NDIS-related digital work sits in the NDIA's own technology portfolio, not in MDPR. Disability Employment Services Reform is the one exception.
Older Australians outside aged care
MyGov accessibility, age-pension service-design work all below MDPR threshold.
Heuristic tagging against six mission themes from the Data and Digital Government Strategy. A project can tag to multiple themes — totals are not mutually exclusive.
Government for the future (modern, secure, resilient)
75 projects
60%
CapSTAR · Cyber DTx · RegistryConnect · ICN · ObjectStar→DB2
Data-driven (insights, evidence-based decisions)
66 projects
53%
BDTI · NCIS · NAFIS NextGen · statistical systems uplift
AI and emerging tech
63 projects
51%
Crack Down on Fraud (ML) · STEPS · NVES · intelligent automation
Trusted and secure (privacy, sovereignty)
57 projects
46%
Digital ID · AML/CTF Reform · Cyber CURE · protective-security uplift
Delivering for all people and business
52 projects
42%
Aged Care Transformation · HDM · Visa Modernisation · DES Reform
Simple and seamless services (integration)
28 projects
23%
Case Management Solution · integrated platforms · Single Touch Payroll
The pattern. The portfolio is overwhelmingly about keeping the lights on— “Government for the future” (legacy replacement, cyber, resilience) covers 60%. The weakest cluster is “Simple and seamless services” (23%) — the mission most aligned with the citizen experience of dealing with government. AI shows up in ~half the portfolio but never as the headline — it's a feature inside Crack Down on Fraud, STEPS and HDM, not a flagship.
2025 Implementation Plan — what MDPR projects map to the DTA's 3 priorities
Expanding the use of Digital ID across the economy
Digital ID Program (Tier 1, Medium-High, $408M) — Trust Exchange in production pilot, statutory Accreditation Scheme ramping.
Expanding the responsible use of AI
No single flagship project — visible across the 63 AI-tagged projects. AI is a feature inside Crack Down on Fraud, STEPS, the HDM successor, not the headline.
Lifting digital resilience across essential systems
Cyber DTx (worsened) · CURE programs (closed at PM&C) · agency cyber capability uplifts.
Portfolio-level red flags
DCCEEW closed 6 projects in 2025–26
Largest closure footprint of any portfolio. Environment Information Australia ($51M), Inspector-General of Water Compliance ICT, Sustaining Environmental Assessments, Commonwealth Climate Risk + Opportunity Management, National Climate Adaptation + Risk, Waste Exports Licencing. Plus NEPA paused ($121M). Successful consolidation or quiet retreat — worth scrutiny.
DFAT portfolio-level capacity issue
Two DFAT Tier 1 projects worsened in 2026 (Digital Uplift Medium-High → Medium, ICN Stabilisation High → Medium-High). Pattern, not coincidence.
47% of all projects have no published DCA for 2026
Tier 3 visibility gap. DTA has a roadmap to fill it but today's picture is partial.
1 in 3 Medium-or-lower DCA projects ships within 6 months
DTA-published: ~one-third of Medium-or-lower DCA projects have a planned completion date within the next six months. Late-cycle integration risk meets delivery confidence concerns.
Defence digital invisibility
National-security carve-out excludes Defence's multi-billion-dollar digital + ICT spend. The 3 Veterans' Affairs projects ($73.3M) don't represent the Defence portfolio's actual digital footprint.
Compositional improvement
15 projects worsened, 18 closed. The closed list includes HDM ($487.6M) at Services Australia, which had significant residual risk. Some portfolio-level improvement is compositional, not remediative.
Root causes (DTA-identified)
Five causes that co-occur in Medium-or-lower DCA projects — “projects in trouble routinely manage three or more of these at once.”
Anyone using MDPR totals as a proxy for “total Commonwealth digital investment” is understating it.
Defence digital and ICT
Excluded under national-security carve-out. Defence's Integrated Investment Plan describes multi-billion-dollar projects (single information environment, Hellios, JP9111, MILIS replacement) — entirely invisible here.
Sub-threshold ICT (~$5–30M agency builds)
Material agency-managed work below MDPR scope. Anyone using MDPR totals as a proxy for total Commonwealth digital investment is understating it.
State and territory projects
MDPR is federal-only. State equivalents like Service NSW, DTA Victoria, QGCDG operate at similar scale and aren't covered.
Strategy outcome missions
MDPR is a delivery-assurance instrument. APS digital-skills uplift and citizen co-design (Strategy missions) show up in the annual Implementation Plan, not here.
Tier definitions
Tier 1 — Flagship
· 21 (17%)
Most complex, highest strategic significance. Deepest central oversight.
Tier 2 — Complex
· 45 (36%)
Complex and strategically significant but smaller scope, lower criticality and/or lower cost than Tier 1.
Tier 3 — Significant
· 58 (47%)
Significant investments that generally represent lower risk. Many lack a published DCA.
DCA bands (highest to lowest)
Substantial confidence of successful delivery.
Broadly on track, residual risks manageable.
Material risks but recoverable with focus.
Significant risk to schedule, cost, or scope.
Unlikely to deliver to time, cost, quality without major intervention.
NFP = Not for Publication, used where publishing the figure would compromise commercial or national-security interests. Not rated = no published DCA; distinct from a Low rating.
Project register from src/lib/digital-projects.ts, parsed from the data.gov.au dataset published 9 February 2026 (updated 17 March 2026). Curated tables (improved / worsened / cohorts / strategy alignment) hand-transcribed from Research/mdpr-2026/ working notes — heuristic tagging is directional, not authoritative.