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PLACE-DATA · NEW MAY 2026
ENERGY DEEP-DIVE INCLUDED
100+ DATASETS · 16 CUSTODIANS

Place-Data Australia — the geospatial, energy & infrastructure layer

Every Australian government decision about land, energy, hazards or growth ultimately rests on a stack of place data — cadastre, generation traces, vegetation, exposure layers, tenements, addresses. This report is the first independent map of who runs what: 8 federal custodians, 8 state spatial agencies, 100+ datasets across 14 thematic buckets. The energy market — 200 TWh, 83 GW, ~25 GW behind-the-meter — is the live case study throughout.

100+

Australian place-data sources catalogued

Across 14 thematic buckets — energy, gas, mining, land, environment, demand

200 TWh

Annual NEM electricity sent out

Plus ~25 GW behind-the-meter rooftop solar

~83 GW

Installed grid-connected capacity

NEM + SWIS + NT/regional islanded

6,000 PJ

Australian primary energy consumption

Transport 30%, industrial 40%, residential + commercial 30%

215

Safeguard Mechanism facilities (>100 ktCO2-e)

Baselines decline ~4.9% per year to 2030

8

Federal place-data custodians

Finance · ONDC · GA · CSIRO · ABS · BOM · DCCEEW · ABARES

8

State / territory spatial agencies

All on ANZLIC + ICSM

6

Structural data gaps with no current owner

Each gap is a story

Overview — why place-data is the substrate

Every policy claim about Australia eventually meets the ground. Where are the dwellings, the smelters, the bushfire-exposed homes, the rooftop-solar postcodes, the gas pipelines? Who owns the layer that answers that — and on what licence? This report walks the stack from the rules-of-the-road in Finance down to the council GIS team that re-creates the state cadastre because the national version is too coarse.

The energy market is the live case study. It is the part of the stack that moves daily, has the most public datasets (~100 catalogued), the clearest accountability gaps (CIS contract pricing redacted; days-of-cover opaque), and the loudest industrial users (Tomago, Bell Bay, BlueScope) saying the data they need to plan investment is incomplete.

Three patterns this map shows

  1. No single front door. Even for one problem — say, bushfire risk — six different agencies own pieces. The Digital Atlas is the closest national integrator, but doesn't yet pull in all the dynamic feeds.
  2. Federal–state seams matter most. Cadastre, zoning and dwelling approvals are state-owned but only nationally interpretable when stitched together. The Foundation Spatial Data Framework exists to do this — coverage is uneven.
  3. The analytics layer is thin. Excellent reference layers from GA + states + CSIRO missions. The middle — turn references into dashboards councils and journalists can use — is mostly missing.

The three-layer architecture

1. Coordination & policy

Sets the rules. Owns the Data and Digital Government Strategy (2023–2030), data.gov.au, and the legal route for cross-agency sharing.

Department of Finance
ONDC (DATA Scheme)
Data & Digital Ministers Meeting
ABS

2. Producers — the place-data heart

Produces the foundational national layers — cadastre, geodesy, vegetation, climate grids, exposure, EO. The Digital Atlas is the closest thing to a national integrator.

Geoscience Australia
CSIRO (CCEO · AquaWatch · Data61)
Bureau of Meteorology
DCCEEW (EIA + NVIS)
ABARES (ALUM)

3. State, territory & local

Owns the cadastre, zoning, addressing and most of the day-to-day delivery. Best-resourced metros run their own analytics on top.

8 state Surveyors-General
8 state open-data portals
Landgate WA · NSW Spatial · Land Use Vic · Queensland Globe · LISTmap
City of Sydney · Melbourne · Brisbane GIS shops + 128 NSW councils

The 8 federal custodians — who builds the layer

Department of Finance

Finance

Portfolio: Finance

Owner of the Data and Digital Government Strategy (2023–2030), the Australian Government Data System and data.gov.au. The 'rules-of-the-road' layer.

Senator Katy Gallagher

Minister for Finance & the Public Service

Office of the National Data Commissioner

ONDC

Portfolio: Finance

Runs the DATA Scheme — controlled cross-agency data sharing between Commonwealth, states and accredited universities. The legal route for place-data sharing.

Andrew Lalor

Acting National Data Commissioner (from 3 Nov 2025)

Geoscience Australia

GA

Portfolio: Industry, Science and Resources

Australia's national geological and geospatial agency. Produces foundational national layers, runs the Digital Atlas, chairs ANZLIC.

Melissa Harris PSM

CEO (from Feb 2025)

CSIRO

CSIRO

Portfolio: Industry, Science and Resources

Centre for Earth Observation + Data61 + Land & Water. Turns reference layers into missions: AquaWatch, Digital Earth Australia, the analytics on top.

Dr Alex Held

AquaWatch Mission Lead · 2026 CEOS Chair Team

Australian Bureau of Statistics

ABS

Portfolio: Treasury

The integration hub. PLIDA + BLADE + Census + DataLab — the only way to ask 'what's the lived outcome at SA2 level'. 354 active research projects in Jan 2026.

Dr David Gruen AO

Australian Statistician · Head of APS Data Profession

Bureau of Meteorology

BOM

Portfolio: DCCEEW

National weather, climate and water-information. Owns the most heavily-used time-series geodata in the country — gridded climate datasets, flood forecasts.

Nichole Brinsmead

CIO & Group Executive, Data and Digital

Climate Change, Energy, Environment & Water

DCCEEW

Portfolio: Climate / Energy / Environment / Water

Houses Environment Information Australia (EIA), the National Vegetation Information System (NVIS), State of the Environment, plus the energy-policy machinery.

Mike Kaiser

Secretary (from Jul 2025)

ABARES

ABARES

Portfolio: Agriculture

The land-use and natural-resource economics shop inside DAFF. Owns the authoritative Australian Land Use and Management (ALUM) classification — the spine of any rural-vs-urban analysis.

Dr Jared Greenville

Executive Director, ABARES

The 8 state & territory spatial agencies

NSW

Spatial Services (DCS)

Narelle Underwood

Surveyor-General & Executive Director

Deepest foundational data work in the country.

VIC

Land Use Vic + DEECA Spatial

Craig Sandy LS GAICD

Surveyor-General · Chair of ICSM

Two surfaces — fragmentation cost is real.

QLD

Spatial Information (NRMMRRD)

Queensland Spatial Information Council

Peak coordination body (QSIC)

Strong web GIS, machine-of-government churn in 2024.

WA

Landgate

Trish Scully

CEO (5-year term from Sep 2024)

The country's most ambitious state digital-twin commitment.

SA

DEW MapLand · Location SA

Sandy Carruthers

ANZLIC Co-Deputy Chair

Clean collaboration model — environment-led.

TAS

Land Tasmania (NRE Tas)

Matthew Reid

Surveyor-General (from Dec 2025)

Small team, strong cadastre coverage.

ACT

OSGLI · ACTmapi

Stuart Fletcher

ANZLIC Co-Deputy Chair

Smallest jurisdiction, cleanest open-data licensing.

NT

DLPE · NTLIS

Department of Lands, Planning & Environment

NTLIS is Australia's oldest land-info system (1980)

Strategy refresh underway for next 5 years.

Problem → dataset map — click a problem

⚡ Energy transition
🔥 Bushfire & hazard exposure
🏠 Housing supply & zoning
⛏️ Critical minerals exploration
💧 Water — drought, flood, quality
🚉 Infrastructure pipeline
🌿 Environment & biodiversity
🗺️ Right industry, right place

Energy transition

Who has what generation, where, and what's retiring when?

Owner stack

AEMO + CER + GA + NNTT + state planning portals

Editorial take

Seven federal/state custodians — no single national map of the grid.

Energy data — the live case study

Australia's energy market is the part of the place-data stack that moves daily — 5-minute settlement on the NEM since Oct 2021, millions of trades, ~100 catalogued public datasets, and the largest single capital-allocation programme any Australian government runs (the Capacity Investment Scheme contracts ~32 GW by 2030). It is also where the gap between data exists and data is usable bites hardest.

NEM generation mix · 2024 (% share)

Black coal

38%

↓↓

Brown coal

14%

Rooftop solar (BTM)

13%

Wind

13%

↑↑

Utility solar

9%

↑↑

Hydro

7%

Gas

6%

Black + brown coal still ~52% of NEM generation. Wind, utility & rooftop solar collectively 35%. Gas plays peaking/firming role only.

Source: AEMO NEMWeb · OpenNEM reconciliation

SWIS (WA) generation mix · 2024

Gas

50%

Other / standby

17%

Wind

12%

Coal

10%

↓↓

Solar

8%

Battery

3%

↑↑

Gas-dominated. Coal closing (Muja, Collie). Synergy commissioning 500 MW / 2,000 MWh Collie BESS.

Source: AEMO WEM data

Coal retirement schedule — 17.3 GW closing by 2047

Bar width = nameplate MW. Color = jurisdiction. Bayswater (NSW) is the single largest — 2,640 MW retiring 2033. Eraring (2027) is the first big shoe to drop and triggers most of the AEMO Reliability Standard tightening.

NSW · Eraring

Origin (with NSW Govt subsidy)

2,880 MW

2027

scheduled

VIC · Yallourn

EnergyAustralia

1,480 MW

2028

scheduled

QLD · Callide B+C

CS Energy + InterGen

1,580 MW

2030

scheduled

NSW · Bayswater

AGL

2,640 MW

2033

scheduled

NSW · Vales Point

Delta Electricity

1,320 MW

2033

scheduled

VIC · Loy Yang A

AGL

2,210 MW

2035

scheduled

QLD · Tarong + N

Stanwell

1,843 MW

2037

scheduled

NSW · Mt Piper

EnergyAustralia (review)

1,400 MW

2040

scheduled

QLD · Stanwell

Stanwell (review)

1,460 MW

2046

scheduled

VIC · Loy Yang B

Alinta

1,170 MW

2047

scheduled

Source: AEMO Generation Information (May 2026 update) · operator AGMs · state retirement notices

Top 7 industrial demand sites — the smelter / refinery cluster

Four aluminium smelters alone = ~15% of national electricity demand. Every six months these become the same four recurring stories. Industry maps this internally; the public version is what's missing.

Tomago Aluminium

NSW

Aluminium smelter

950 MW load

Rio Tinto JV. ~10% of NSW demand. Contract expiry 2028.

Boyne Smelters

QLD

Aluminium smelter

920 MW load

Rio Tinto. Gladstone — coal-fired Gladstone Power Station co-located.

Portland Aluminium

VIC

Aluminium smelter

660 MW load

Alcoa JV. On multiple government-supported deals.

Bell Bay

TAS

Aluminium smelter

600 MW load

Rio Tinto. Hydro-powered baseline.

Pinjarra + Wagerup

WA

Alumina refinery

500 MW load

Alcoa. Gas-dependent industrial heat — VicGSR replacement TBD.

Whyalla Steelworks

SA

Steel + iron ore

350 MW load

Nationalised 2025. Hydrogen-hub future contingent on offtake.

Port Kembla

NSW

BlueScope steel

400 MW load

Blast-furnace re-line decision pending; energy cost is biggest risk.

The catalogue audit — 100+ datasets graded

106

Datasets

energy-data corpus

54

Machine-readable

51% — CSV / JSON / API / shapefile

34

Partial

32% — tables in CSV, rest PDF

18

PDF-only / scrape

17% — human web pages only

Pick a bucket to see every dataset in it, its publisher, machine-readability and a link straight to the source.

A

Wholesale electricity

10

B

Generation, capacity, location

10

C

Transmission & networks

5

D

Gas market

9

E

Liquid fuels

9

F

Carbon, emissions, RE certs

8

G

Forecasting & outlooks

10

H

Industrial / manufacturing / mining

9

I

Demand, consumption, behaviour

7

J

Infrastructure consent registers

7

K

Mineral tenements (per-state)

7

L

Land, biodiversity, native title

6

M

International benchmarks

4

N

Civil society

5

A. Wholesale electricity

AEMO

8
1
1
1
Machine-readable
3
Machine-readable
4
Machine-readable
8
Machine-readable
9
Machine-readable
10
Machine-readable

Reading the audit — Bucket B (Generation, capacity, location) is the cleanest: every dataset fully machine-readable. Bucket J (Infrastructure consent registers) is the worst: mostly PDF-only — exactly where the federation seams hurt most. Bucket N (Civil society) is also weak — IEEFA / Climate Council / BZE publish PDFs that would be far more useful as live data.

Structural data gaps — every gap is a story

These datasets do not existin publicly usable form. Each one is the difference between writing about a policy and being able to verify it. The number on each card is how many of YourGov's existing reports would change if the dataset existed.

1. National address-level industrial energy consumer register

ENERGY

We know there are 215 Safeguard facilities and ~7 anchor smelters/refineries; we have no single address-level dataset showing every site that draws >5 GWh/year, by ANZSIC, geocoded.

2. Real-time unified EV-charger utilisation feed

ENERGY

Plugshare, BP Pulse, NRMA, Evie, Chargefox all run their own APIs. Nobody publishes 'national chargers in use right now' — a key input for the grid integration story.

3. Council-level energy consumption + emissions register

BOTH

We have facility-level NGER and state-level Australian Energy Statistics, nothing at LGA. 537 councils have to net-zero plan without data on their own territory.

4. Cross-jurisdictional REZ landholder payment data

BOTH

NSW, VIC, QLD each publish patchy aggregate data. Nobody publishes per-landholder payments under host-community benefit schemes. Land-use trust story.

5. Capacity Investment Scheme contract pricing transparency

ENERGY

DCCEEW publishes aggregate CIS contract volumes; per-contract strike prices are redacted. The most consequential public energy spend of the decade.

6. SA2-level federal + state infrastructure pipeline

GEO

Federal MDPR + 8 state pipelines exist separately. Nobody can answer 'what's being built where I live' in one query.

7. Integrated cadastre × zoning × dwelling-approvals chain

GEO

Each leg exists per state. Joining them — for housing-supply analysis — is a state-by-state DIY project that every council and journalist redoes.

8. Strategic Petroleum Reserve days-of-cover by product

ENERGY

Australia holds ~26 days of IEA-equivalent stock (well below the 90-day obligation). Stock-by-product detail is opaque — petrol vs jet fuel composition matters.

What industry & practitioners say is broken

Tomago Aluminium (Rio Tinto JV)

Securing 24/7 firm renewable supply at competitive prices is the binding constraint. Wholesale price volatility threatens the smelter's viability beyond 2030.

AFR interview series 2023–24; Senate Standing Committee submission

BlueScope Steel

AEMO's reliability-standard tightening is welcome but transmission build is too slow. Energy costs are the largest single risk to the Port Kembla blast-furnace re-line decision.

FY24 results commentary; AEMC Reliability Panel submissions

Alcoa Australia

Pinjarra and Wagerup alumina refineries depend on gas. The Vic Gas Substitution Roadmap is inadequate on industrial heat transition.

Alcoa Sustainability Report; Victorian Treasury engagement

BHP / Rio Tinto / FMG

Diesel-replacement pathways for haul-truck fleets need a viable hydrogen + electric grid solution. The Pilbara is grid-isolated.

BHP Climate Change Report 2024; Rio Tinto Climate Change Report 2024

Office of the National Data Commissioner (implied accountability)

DDGS scorecard — three years in, what's actually shipped vs slipped? Implementation Plans give measurable claims to test.

Finance 2025 Implementation Plan; ONDC published metrics

Council GIS leads (composite — NSW + VIC metros)

We re-create state cadastre locally because the national version is too coarse or too old. Addressing fails at the boundary.

YourGov scan of council GIS team interviews · 2026

Six recommendations — what good looks like

1

Make the Digital Atlas a real national front door

Pull dynamic feeds (AEMO Generation Information, CER NGER, NNTT) into the Digital Atlas as first-class layers, not external links. Set a measurable target: 80% of the 14 catalogue buckets discoverable via the Atlas by Dec 2027.

Owner: Geoscience Australia · Finance
2

Publish the place-data catalogue itself

Take this report's 100+ dataset entries and publish them as a versioned CSV at data.gov.au with the same machine-readability scorecard. Update quarterly. Public scorecard is the accountability.

Owner: Finance · ONDC
3

Force per-facility CIS contract pricing into the public record

Aggregate-only CIS reporting is not consistent with the Public Data Policy. Treat strike prices the same way the AEMO Reliability Reserve does — published with a six-month embargo if commercial sensitivity is real.

Owner: DCCEEW · CER
4

Build the SA2 infrastructure pipeline view

MDPR + Infrastructure NSW + MTIA Vic + state pipelines joined at SA2. ABS already maps the geographies. The plumbing is a one-engineer project; the politics is the constraint.

Owner: Infrastructure Australia · ABS
5

Mandate a council energy + emissions register

ALGA + DCCEEW + ARENA fund a national LGA-level energy consumption / emissions data return. 537 councils currently writing net-zero plans without data — the gap is structural.

Owner: ALGA · DCCEEW · ARENA
6

Replace 'two front doors' with a federation pact

data.gov.au · digital.atlas.gov.au · FED · DataLab · state portals. The DDMM should commission a federated-search layer so a citizen typing 'bushfire risk Penrith' gets the right dataset, not seven.

Owner: DDMM · ANZLIC · Finance

Read the companion insight

The Energy Data Front-Door Problem — short-form companion arguing the case for one of these recommendations.

Read insight

Environment & energy ideas — 14 proposals from the data

Each idea below maps a specific problem from this report or the DCCEEW department profile to a concrete proposal, tagged with the existing budget pot that could fund it and the owner who would deliver it. Filter by theme to see the cluster, or scan all 14.

All (14)
Data transparency (3)
Industrial demand (2)
Household equity (2)
Federal–state seams (3)
Citizen-facing (1)
Ecosystem & water (3)
1

CIS Strike-Price Transparency Register

Data transparency
Low
National

Problem

Per-contract Capacity Investment Scheme strike prices are redacted. Aggregate volumes only.

Evidence

~32 GW of CIS contracts targeted by 2030 — the single largest energy capital-allocation programme any Australian government runs. Citizens cannot independently verify value-for-money.

Proposal

Publish strike price, MW, technology and counterparty per contract with a 6-month commercial embargo (mirroring the AEMO Reliability Reserve disclosure model). A single dashboard at energy.gov.au.

Budget

DCCEEW administered, no new appropriation needed. Powering the Regions Fund admin would underwrite.

Owner

DCCEEW + Clean Energy Regulator

Timing

Ship within FY26

Place-Data gap #5
DCCEEW Energy gap
2

Council-LGA Energy + Emissions Open Data

Data transparency
Medium
National

Problem

No public LGA-level energy consumption or emissions data — only facility-level NGER and state-level Australian Energy Statistics.

Evidence

537 councils across Australia writing net-zero plans without data on their own territory. NGER covers ~215 facilities; NSW alone has 128 councils with bespoke spreadsheets.

Proposal

Mandate a quarterly LGA energy + emissions return modelled on NGER. Open CSV at data.gov.au. Geocode to LGA boundary via ABS ASGS.

Budget

$1.9B Powering the Regions Fund — carve out $15-20M for data infrastructure.

Owner

ALGA · DCCEEW · ARENA

Timing

FY26 data pipeline, first release FY27

Place-Data gap #3
DCCEEW Climate gap
3

Snowy 2.0 Quarterly Cost-and-Schedule Dashboard

Data transparency
Low
National

Problem

Snowy 2.0 has gone from $2B (2017) → $12B+ (2025) → $20B+ analyst forecasts. Seven completion-date revisions. No public accountability cadence.

Evidence

Each cost revision arrives via media leak or AGM commentary. ANAO has flagged delivery risk three times. Citizens fund the overrun via consolidated revenue.

Proposal

ASX-style continuous-disclosure regime for Snowy Hydro: any cost movement >5% or schedule slip >3 months triggers a public notice within 14 days. Quarterly delivery dashboard published.

Budget

Snowy Hydro internal — under $500K p.a. Self-funded.

Owner

Snowy Hydro · ANAO oversight

Timing

Could ship Q4 2026

DCCEEW Energy gap
Place-Data accountability
4

Smelter Lifeline Power Auction

Industrial demand
High
National

Problem

Tomago, Bell Bay, Boyne, Portland — 4 smelters = ~15% of national demand — have contract expiries from 2028 with no clear firm-renewable PPA path.

Evidence

Tomago (950 MW, Rio Tinto JV) public position: 'wholesale price volatility threatens viability beyond 2030.' BlueScope, Alcoa say the same. Loss of any one = single-region shock.

Proposal

A standalone CIS auction tranche targeting 24/7 firm-renewable PPAs for the four anchor smelters. Strike-price floor + tax credit stacking under Future Made in Australia.

Budget

Future Made in Australia ($6.7B critical minerals + $1B hydrogen). Carve $400-600M as the smelter underwrite.

Owner

DCCEEW · Treasury · DISR

Timing

Auction design 2026, first awards FY27

Place-Data industry quotes
DCCEEW Energy
Budget 2026-27
5

Industrial Heat Transition Atlas

Industrial demand
Medium
National

Problem

Alcoa Pinjarra + Wagerup (alumina) and BlueScope Port Kembla (steel) need industrial heat decarbonisation paths. Vic Gas Substitution Roadmap is silent on industrial heat.

Evidence

~30% of Australian primary energy is industrial. Six anchor industrial heat users represent ~5% of national emissions. Each has different fuel-substitution economics.

Proposal

Site-by-site decarbonisation atlas: technology options, capital cost, transmission/gas dependency, biomass availability. Modelled on ARENA's heavy-industry studies but published as a live dashboard.

Budget

$1.9B Powering the Regions Fund. $25M sufficient for the atlas + first three deep dives.

Owner

ARENA · CSIRO · DCCEEW

Timing

FY26 atlas, FY27 site reports

Place-Data demand sites
DCCEEW Energy gap
6

Renter Solar + Battery Access Program

Household equity
Medium
National

Problem

30% of households are renters — excluded from rooftop solar, batteries and the Cheaper Home Batteries rebate. 'The transition is great if you own your home' (DCCEEW citizen voice).

Evidence

336,615 households in energy debt (avg $1,367). 185K Cheaper Home Batteries installed in 6 months — but all on owner-occupier roofs. Rentals locked out structurally.

Proposal

Landlord-side tax incentive + tenant-side bill-share scheme. Pilot in NSW (largest rental pool) with Energy Made Easy as the bill-split rails. Targets 50K rental dwellings in year one.

Budget

Cheaper Home Batteries program reweighting + state ESS/VEEC scheme alignment. ~$120-180M to launch.

Owner

DCCEEW · AER · state energy ministers

Timing

Pilot 2026, scale 2027

DCCEEW Energy citizen voice
Budget 2026-27
7

National Citizen Energy Advisor

Household equity
Low
National

Problem

Tariffs, rebates, solar feed-in, battery options are confusing even for engaged consumers. Elderly and low-literacy households just see the bill rise and ration heat.

Evidence

DCCEEW citizen voice: 'I worry about my elderly parents. They don't understand the new plans and tariffs. They just see the bill going up and turn the heater off.' 84% of households surveyed concerned about costs.

Proposal

Energy Made Easy v2 — a personalised advisor that takes postcode + bill + heating type and returns a ranked plan + battery economics + rebate eligibility in plain English. Phone channel for over-65s.

Budget

AER + Energy Consumers Australia operating funds. ~$8-12M build, $3M/yr run.

Owner

AER · ECA · DCCEEW

Timing

Public beta Q3 2026

DCCEEW Energy citizen voice
Place-Data gap (informal)
8

EPBC Public Notices API

Federal–state seams
Low
National

Problem

EPBC Public Notices register is HTML-only. Zero of seven infrastructure consent registers are machine-readable. Every analyst, council and developer redoes the scrape.

Evidence

Bucket J of the catalogue audit: 0/7 fully machine-readable, 5/7 PDF-only. Determines whether HumeLink, Sydney Ring, EnergyConnect Stage 2, 32 GW of CIS contracts get built.

Proposal

Public REST API + downloadable CSV mirror of every notice (referral, decision, controlled-action) within 24 hours. Schema versioned. Existing AusGov API pattern is sufficient — no new tech.

Budget

DCCEEW digital admin. ~$2-4M one-off + $400K/yr.

Owner

DCCEEW · DTA

Timing

FY26

Place-Data catalogue audit
DCCEEW Services gap
9

REZ Landholder Benefit Register

Federal–state seams
High
National

Problem

NSW, VIC, QLD each publish patchy aggregate data on host-community benefit schemes. Per-landholder payment data is unpublished. Trust is the binding constraint.

Evidence

REZ rollout depends on landholder consent. Communities allege payments are inequitable. Without disclosure the rumour fills the gap and consent stalls — which slows the energy transition.

Proposal

Standardised national register: payment amount, term, type (host vs neighbour), REZ name, asset class. Same disclosure regime as the Federal Lobbyist Register.

Budget

AEMO Services + state EnergyCo/VicGrid budgets. ~$5M/yr nationally.

Owner

NSW EnergyCo · VicGrid · AEMO Services

Timing

Requires DDMM alignment 2026, register 2027

Place-Data gap #4
DCCEEW Energy gap
10

National Cadastre × Zoning × Approvals Stitch

Federal–state seams
High
National

Problem

Cadastre is state-owned, zoning is council-owned, dwelling approvals are ABS-collected. Joining them — basic for housing-supply analysis — is a state-by-state DIY job.

Evidence

Place-Data gap #7: 'Every council and journalist redoes the cadastre × zoning × dwelling-approvals join.' Federal Housing Accord targets sit on top of unstitched data.

Proposal

ANZLIC + ABS + state Surveyors-General + Treasury commission a single GeoPackage release per quarter: parcel + zoning + approval status, national. Modelled on the Foundation Spatial Data Framework but actually integrated.

Budget

$3.4B Resourcing Australia's Prosperity program (GA) — $15-25M would underwrite the integration layer.

Owner

Geoscience Australia · ANZLIC · ABS

Timing

2027 first release

Place-Data gap #7
11

Reef Tourism Conservation Premium

Ecosystem & water
Medium
State

Problem

$6.4B Great Barrier Reef tourism economy contributes nothing structured back to reef conservation. 6th mass bleaching event in 2025 (most extensive on record).

Evidence

DCCEEW citizen voice: 'I'd pay $20 to visit the Reef if I knew it went directly to conservation.' Estimated $20-50M/yr potential at modest levy rates. GBRMPA programme funding cut 15%.

Proposal

Statutory levy ($10-25 per visitor) collected at tour-operator point of sale, ringfenced for GBRMPA + AIMS reef restoration. Sun-set + renew every 5 years.

Budget

Self-funding once legislated. No appropriation needed.

Owner

GBRMPA · Queensland Treasury · DCCEEW

Timing

Legislation 2026, collection 2027

DCCEEW Environment + Innovation
12

Real-Time Reef Health Dashboard

Ecosystem & water
Medium
National

Problem

Reef health data lives in AIMS, GBRMPA, Reef Census volunteer surveys, satellite EO at GA/CSIRO. No single citizen-facing dashboard.

Evidence

Great Reef Census got tens of thousands of citizen-scientist photos in one season. Tourists want to know what they're visiting. Scientists need cross-feed integration. Everyone benefits.

Proposal

AquaWatch-style mission applied to the Reef: live water-temperature + bleaching index + coral cover at 50 indicator sites, updated weekly. Public web + API for tour operators.

Budget

CSIRO AquaWatch existing investment + $1.2B Reef program. ~$8-15M build.

Owner

CSIRO · AIMS · GBRMPA

Timing

MVP Q2 2027

DCCEEW Innovation citizen voice
Place-Data CSIRO
13

Murray–Darling Environmental Flow Receipts

Ecosystem & water
Low
National

Problem

Basin Plan implementation has eroded irrigator trust because buybacks are perceived as one-way. The environment doesn't 'receipt' the water it receives.

Evidence

DCCEEW Water citizen voice (positive): 'Environmental flows brought the Coorong back to life... native fish breeding in numbers we haven't seen in 20 years.' But this story is invisible to irrigators.

Proposal

Public 'environmental water receipts' — for every ML of buyback, publish what it watered, when, and the measurable ecological response. Restores symmetry to the trade.

Budget

MDBA + state environmental water-holder budgets. ~$3-5M/yr.

Owner

MDBA · Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder

Timing

FY26 pilot at Coorong + Macquarie Marshes

DCCEEW Water citizen voice
14

National Real-Time EV Charger Utilisation Feed

Citizen-facing
Low
National

Problem

Plugshare, BP Pulse, NRMA, Evie, Chargefox each run their own APIs. Nobody publishes 'national chargers in use right now' — critical for grid integration planning.

Evidence

25K+ chargers nationally. AEMO operational demand traces show evening EV charging is becoming a meaningful peak driver. ARENA-funded chargers already report utilisation as a grant condition.

Proposal

Mandate utilisation reporting for any charger that received public funding (ARENA, state schemes). Aggregate to a federated public feed. Existing AEMO data infrastructure can host.

Budget

ARENA grant-condition tightening. Marginal cost — ARENA already collects the data.

Owner

ARENA · AEMO · DCCEEW

Timing

Grant-condition update 2026, feed live 2027

Place-Data gap #2

14

Ideas surfaced

6

Low-difficulty (ship soon)

13

National-impact

6

Themes

Industry × energy — who actually uses the power

The supply story (how many GW of solar, wind and storage, by when) gets the headlines. The demand story decides who wins. Three things fall out of the industry data:

  1. The current top-of-table is concentrated and fragile. Aluminium smelting alone consumes ~25 TWh/yr — about the same as every Australian data centre put together today — across just four assets, each in active rescue or transition negotiation.
  2. The coming wave is bigger than people think. Plausible new industrial electricity demand by 2035 is 40–80 TWh — roughly the size of the entire current NEM coal fleet.
  3. The price stack is the whole game. A green-hydrogen project needs ~$25–40/MWh delivered to export-compete; Q1 2026 NEM averaged $73/MWh. Whoever lands the cheap firmed clean power lands the industry.

Where it all is — the industrial map of Australia

Iron ore, lithium, aluminium smelters, alumina refineries, LNG, steel, dairy, wheat, cattle, the minerals-processing plants that capture the value-add — and the Renewable Energy Zones that decide where the next round lands. Filter by commodity; tap a marker for the detail and the raw → processed multiplier.

Hide all
Iron ore
Lithium mining
Minerals processing
Aluminium smelter
Alumina refinery
LNG
Steel
Dairy / milk
Wheat / broadacre
Cattle / beef
Renewable Energy Zone

📍

Tap any marker

38 sites shown — iron ore, lithium, aluminium, alumina, LNG, steel, dairy, wheat, cattle, minerals processing and the Renewable Energy Zones. Use the chips above to filter.

The four aluminium smelters — every one now a government-supported asset

Tomago

Rescue

NSW · Hunter

~590 kt/yr — largest in Australia

Under active rescue negotiation. Up to ~$470M federal subsidy-backed power deal being negotiated for the 2026–2029 contract window. Wholesale prices threaten viability beyond 2028.

Boyne Smelter

Supported

QLD · Gladstone

~530 kt/yr

$2B combined Commonwealth + Queensland (50/50) commitment to a renewable-energy transition; operations supported through 2040.

Portland

Supported

VIC

~360 kt/yr

New 9-year, 287 MW contract from 1 July 2026; with the existing 300 MW AGL deal (2023) it supports operations to mid-2035.

Bell Bay

Secure

TAS

~190 kt/yr aluminium

Hydropower-supplied; one of the world's lowest-emission smelters. The structurally most secure of the four.

Source: Australian Aluminium Council · Grattan · DISR Resources & Energy Quarterly (Dec 2025) · IEEFA

The heavy load today — and where it's heading

2026
2035
2050

The existing platform the transition rests on. Toggle the year to watch each sector's indicative trajectory — LNG and refining fall away, chemicals, food and mining grow into them. Bars in PJ-equivalent/yr (electricity converted at 3.6 PJ/TWh).

LNG production

Gas (self-fuelled)

430 PJ

Mining (excl. LNG)

Diesel + electricity

210 PJ

Aluminium smelting (×4 smelters)

Electricity

90 PJ

Alumina refining (×6 refineries)

Gas

85 PJ

Agriculture

Diesel

85 PJ

Food & beverage manufacturing

Gas + electricity

50 PJ

Iron & steel (Port Kembla + Whyalla)

Coal + gas

45 PJ

Refining (Lytton + Geelong)

Gas + electricity

35 PJ

Cement & lime

Coal + gas

30 PJ

Basic chemicals (ammonia, fertilisers)

Gas

25 PJ

Pulp & paper

Gas + biomass

25 PJ

2026 from AES 2025 + sector reports. 2035/2050 are YourGov indicative projections — direction is grounded in AEMO ISP and DISR trends; magnitudes are illustrative. Electricity-led loads in teal.

The coming demand wave — 2026 vs 2035 plausible

Data centres + AI compute

~4 TWh25–35 TWh

Real vs phantom demand (44 GW applied, ~6 GW real)

Renewable hydrogen (production)

<0.5 TWh5–15 TWh

Whether export off-take actually holds

Critical-minerals processing

~1 TWh5–10 TWh

Global demand + processing scale-up

Green ammonia

0 (new clean)3–8 TWh

Tied to hydrogen + marine-fuel demand

Green steel (Whyalla converted)

02–4 TWh

Whether the SA hydrogen plan revives

Defence + pharma

~1 TWh2–4 TWh

AUKUS execution pace

EV battery cell manufacturing

<0.1 TWh1–3 TWh

Whether AU manufactures at scale

40–80 TWh

of plausible new industrial demand by 2035 — roughly the entire current NEM coal fleet.

AEMO 2025 IASR / 2026 ISP · DISR · Hydrogen Headstart · CMPTI

What it costs to compete — the $/MWh each industry actually needs

Sorted easiest-to-hardest. Critical-minerals processing and data centres already clear the bar at today's prices; aluminium and green steel need the REZ + storage + federal-incentive stack to all land at once.

IndustryNeeds (firmed, delivered)Australia today2030 plausibleStatus
Critical-minerals processing$60–90Meeting todayMeeting comfortably
Meeting
Data centres$80–140Meeting todayMeeting comfortably
Meeting
Food processing (electrified heat)$80–100$90–120 retail$70–90 in REZ zones
Closing the gap
Glass, cement, ceramics$50–80 + carbon$80–110$50–80
Closing the gap
Hydrogen for export$25–35 at electrolyser$50–80 in REZ zones$25–40 in best corridors
Closing the gap
Aluminium smelting$35–50 firmed$90–130 (subsidised)$50–70 if REZ delivers
Real gap
Green steel (DRI-EAF)$40–50 + H₂ $2.50/kgn/a yet$50–60 + H₂ $3/kg w/ HPTI
Real gap

Source: AEMO wholesale data · Utilizer Q1 2026 · sector cost models. Delivered C&I price = wholesale + network + environmental schemes + retail margin.

The value-add prize — raw export vs processed export

Australia exports raw commodities and imports finished products. Cheap firmed clean power is the wedge that moves the energy component in our favour for the first time in 40 years. Bar = value multiplier from raw to processed — click a chainfor how it works, the processing options, prices & capacity, and the export upside.

Lithium spodumene → LiOH

~$1,000/t~$22,000/t

22×

Milk → cheese / powder

~$0.55/L~$8–12/kg

10×

Bauxite → alumina

~$50/t~$450/t

9×

Iron ore → green steel

~$120/t~$900/t

7×

Alumina → aluminium

~$450/t~$3,200/t

7×

Iron ore → green HBI

~$120/t~$500/t

4×

Cattle → processed beef

~$2,200/head~$5,500/head

2.5×

Wheat → flour

~$300/t~$650/t

2×

Lithium spodumene → LiOH · 22×

How it works
Processing options
Prices & capacity
Exports — now → to come

Hard-rock spodumene concentrate is roasted, acid-leached and crystallised into battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The energy and chemistry are the moat. Australia mines most of the world's spodumene but historically shipped it raw to China for this step — cheap firmed clean power plus the CMPTI credit is what keeps the refining onshore.

Source: DISR · DFAT trade data · sector reports. Multipliers are indicative price-per-unit ratios, not margin.

Where industry lands — the next 5 years, ranked

Overlay three layers — renewable-resource quality (BOM grids), REZ transmission build-out (state EnergyCo + AEMO), and legacy industrial assets (GA + state cadastre) — and the regions that win the next round of industry rank like this.

1

Pilbara

WA

Resource + capital + miners already there. Scale problem if export markets don't materialise.

Green iron
Green ammonia
Critical minerals
2

Hunter

NSW

Transmission, Newcastle port, workforce, REZ overlap, existing chemicals (Orica), data-centre proximity.

Aluminium
Hydrogen
Ammonia
Data centres
3

Gladstone–Bowen

QLD

Port, gas + LNG sunset, aluminium (Boyne), bauxite/alumina (Yarwun), potential critical-minerals processing.

Aluminium
Alumina
Critical minerals
4

Kwinana–Kemerton

WA

Lithium processing already running, port, SWIS-connected and growing fast.

Lithium hydroxide
Nickel
Rare earths
5

Western Sydney + Melbourne West

NSW/VIC

Data centres + AI. Needs transmission and transformers, not new energy industries.

Data centres
AI compute
6

Latrobe Valley

VIC

Transition urgency; G-REZ coming; existing transmission and coal-plant workforce.

Hydrogen
Advanced mfg
Data centres
7

Spencer Gulf (Whyalla–Pt Augusta)

SA

High solar, port — but the green-steel commitment was walked back to gas in 2026.

Critical minerals
Defence
Ag value-add
8

Bell Bay

TAS

Hydro-firmed; needs Marinus Link + an export anchor to unlock.

Green hydrogen
Green ammonia

Source: NSW EnergyCo · VicGrid · Qld REZ Roadmap · AEMO 2026 ISP · state Geological Surveys

Where to build — the supply side

If the demand side decides which industries we want, the supply side decides whether we can power them in time. The AEMO draft 2026 ISP has ~11 GW of coal retiring this decade, demand up ~28% by 2035, a 67 GW grid-connection queue (~46% batteries), 24 GW of grid-scale storage by 2030 and a $128B+ transmission roadmap. Three things fall out:

  1. The pipeline is plausibly the answer. There's enough wind + solar + storage + transmission in the queue to replace coal and meet 2035 demand.
  2. The hard part is the connective tissue, not the generation. Solar farms and batteries are commodity hardware now; transmission lines, regional substations and 500 kV transformers are the four-year-lead-time choke points.
  3. Nuclear is a parallel-universe debate. Under any realistic timeline the first plant is 15+ years away — it cannot displace the 2027–2035 coal closures. Its effect in that window is to slow the renewables build, not add capacity.

Eight technologies — speed × scale × certainty

Sorted fastest-to-slowest. Solar + BESS dominate the build because they have all three. Click a technologyfor the detail and a map of where it's being built now.

TechnologyNow2035Capex $/kWLCOECap. factorDecision → energise

Grid-scale battery (BESS)

Wherever there's transmission — ~46% of the 67 GW connection queue is batteries

~4.4 GW24+ GW$500–1,600$60–110 dispatcheddispatched
2.5–3 yrs

Utility solar PV

Wheatbelt NSW, NW Vic, inland Qld, WA Mid-West, SA Eyre/Riverland

~13 GW50+ GW$800–1,100$40–55/MWh22–28%
3–4 yrs

Gas peaker

Tallawarra B, Kurri Kurri (660 MW), Hunter Power Station

~12 GWflat to +3 GW$1,500–2,500$150–300 (low CF)5–15% peaker
4–5 yrs

Onshore wind

NSW Tablelands, SW Vic, SA Spencer Gulf, Tas Central + NW

~12 GW25–35 GW$2,200–2,800$60–80/MWh30–40%
5–7 yrs

Offshore wind

Gippsland (only confirmed buyer); Southern Ocean Vic; Bunbury WA

0 (6 declared zones)5–15 GW$5,500–7,500 fixed$130–180/MWh45–55%
10–12 yrs

Pumped hydro

Snowy 2.0 (2028), Borumba (2033), Tas Tarraleah + Cethana

~2.6 GW (Snowy 1)+5–8 GW$3,000–6,000$60–110 dispatcheddispatched
12–15 yrs

Conventional hydro

Tas, Snowy, far-north Qld upgrades only — new dams effectively impossible

~8 GWflat to +1 GWn/a — built outn/adispatched
built out

Nuclear (Coalition policy)

7 proposed sites: Liddell, Mt Piper, Loy Yang, Tarong, Callide, Northern, Muja

00 (Labor) / 1 SMR (Coalition)$8,500–17,000$150–250/MWh~90% baseload
18–25 yrs

Source: AEMO draft 2026 ISP · CSIRO GenCost · project registers. “Decision → energise” is realistic Australian lead time including approvals.

Grid-scale battery (BESS)

Fast

The fastest-growing category in the NEM — 4.4 GW operating, 33 GW in the pipeline, 24 GW forecast by 2030 (≈9 GW more than the 2024 ISP). It's location-agnostic and sits wherever the grid needs it, most often at coal-closure sites (Eraring, Liddell) where transmission already terminates. ~74% of the pipeline now uses grid-forming inverters that supply the system strength and inertia closing coal plants used to. New builds are shifting from 2-hour to 4-hour as standard, with 8-hour the next default by 2028.

What it needs

  • Grid connection — often an existing substation
  • ~1 ha per 100 MW
  • Cells + grid-forming inverters (mostly imported)
  • Fire-safety setbacks (NFPA 855)

Approvals

Low — small footprint, often co-located with existing infrastructure; fire safety is the main community concern.

Capex

$500–1,600 $/kW

LCOE / LCOS

$60–110 dispatched

Capacity factor

dispatched

Decision → energise

2.5–3 yrs

Capacity now

~4.4 GW

Plausible 2035

24+ GW

Where Grid-scale battery (BESS) is being built now

Operating

Construction

🗺️

7 sites on the map

Tap a marker for capacity and build status.

A coal plant closes in 2027. To replace it you needed to start:

Solar + BESS

by 2024

Onshore wind

2020–22

Offshore wind

mid-2010s

Pumped hydro

early 2010s

Nuclear

not relevant to 2027

Most of the next decade is the already-decided portfolio playing out. The only levers left for the 2027–2035 window are solar, batteries, gas and transmission throughput.

What's missing — the four bottlenecks (none are generation hardware)

1

Workforce

32,000–42,000 more electricians needed by 2030 (85,000 by 2050)

A Pilbara mine, a NSW REZ wind farm and a Sydney apartment retrofit all want the same electrician on the same Friday. Add transmission linesworkers, electrical engineers (unis produce ~half what's needed), marine + offshore-wind technicians (near-zero domestic capacity). Skilled-trade wages up 15–20% (2022–25); supply isn't catching up.

What policy could do

Triple apprenticeship incentives for electrical trades · fast-track overseas-qualified electricians + linesworkers · direct Commonwealth TAFE funding in REZ regions.

2

Transformers & supply chain

24–48-month lead times for large grid-tie transformers; ~25% of global renewable projects delayed by transformer supply

Australia imports almost all large transformers (Hyundai, Hitachi, Siemens, ABB); one local maker (Wilson, Melbourne) does smaller units, not the 500 kV class. HVDC subsea cable (Marinus) competes with Europe + US for a 3+-year supplier queue. Switchgear lead times 12–24 months.

What policy could do

Commonwealth strategic-reserve transformer programme (pre-purchased, stockpiled) · domestic manufacturing subsidies · Future Made in Australia hooks for transmission equipment.

3

Approvals & social licence

Most non-REZ projects wait 18–24 months for state EIS; EPBC reform stalled

Community pushback + slow approvals is the single biggest deceleration of the 2026 build. No national Aboriginal cultural-heritage framework — it's project-by-project. Wind-farm visual impact is an increasingly successful refusal ground. Hunter, Illawarra and Bass Strait offshore-wind zones were all wound back for lack of bidder + community confidence.

What policy could do

One-stop-shop assessment per declared REZ · national cultural-heritage framework with pre-authorised zones · statutory deadlines on assessing authorities.

4

Benefit sharing

No national framework for who gets what

Wind, solar and transmission concentrate in regional areas; the benefit (cheaper power, industrial growth) often flows to cities. Land-use change hits multi-generational holdings; traditional owners are asked to consent without consistent equity. Best practice exists (NSW/Vic per-km payments, some First Nations equity partnerships) — consistency doesn't.

What policy could do

Standard per-MW / per-km landholder + traditional-owner benefit-sharing · First Nations equity partnerships · community benefit funds + regional housing/childcare alongside the REZ build.

Australia has the resource, the technology and (broadly) the political consensus on direction. Every other thing about the transition is downstream of these four.Fix them and the build delivers; don't, and the 2027–2035 coal-closure window becomes the hardest decade Australian electricity has had.

The live build pipeline — what's actually queued (and what isn't)

The previous section asked where the build could land. This one asks what's actually in the queue right now — from AEMO's Q1 2026 Connections Scorecard, the CIS Tender 7 award (May 2026), the Draft 2026 ISPend-state, the named megaprojects, the federal & state capital deployed against them, and what should be in the pipeline but isn't.

Three things fall out: batteries are now the centre of gravity (49% of pipeline, up from 20% two years ago); CIS auctions have replaced corporate PPAs as the primary build driver; and the constraint has moved from finding projects to delivering them — workforce, transformers, transmission, social licence.

AEMO Q1 2026 Connections Scorecard — 67.3 GW in the NEM pipeline (▲33% YoY)

The pipeline grew from 50.5 GW (Q1 2025) → 67.3 GW (Q1 2026). Batteries did almost all the lifting. Gas applications fell 74%. Source.

Grid batteries (BESS)

Operating 4.4 GW

▲ 12.7 GW YoY

33.2 GW

49% of the pipeline. Up from 20.5 GW Q1 2025 — the standout growth category.

Utility solar PV

Operating 13 GW

▲ 3.0 GW YoY

20.7 GW

~30 projects under construction or committed. Curtailment risk in already-congested NSW Riverina + Qld Western Downs.

Onshore wind

Operating 12 GW

▲ 1.4 GW YoY

9.75 GW

Boosted by CIS Tender 7 (4.8 GW awarded May 2026). ~3.5 GW in actual construction.

Pumped hydro

Operating 2.6 GW

flat

3 GW

Steady. Snowy 2.0 + Borumba + Kidston dominate. Pioneer-Burdekin cancellation removed 5 GW from this line.

Offshore wind

Operating 0 GW

flat

2.2 GW

Star of the South only — 5 of 6 declared zones wound back or no progressing applications.

Gas peakers

Operating 11 GW

▼ 0.6 GW YoY

0.2 GW

Down 74% YoY. Only firm new gas: Kurri Kurri 660 MW + Tallawarra B 316 MW + Hunter Power. Pipeline thinner than AEMO ISP needs.

CIS TENDER 7

MAY 2026

7.8 GW

in a single round — more than the previous six tenders combined

Split
4.8 GW wind · 3 GW solar · 2 GW / 7.9 GWh storage · 19 projects
NSW
9 projects · 3.9 GW gen + 6.4 GWh storage
QLD
5 projects · 2.7 GW gen + 1.5 GWh storage
Biggest single award
Yanco Delta (Origin, NSW South-West REZ) — 1.5 GW + 800 MWh, largest wind project in AU history
Biggest offtake
Rio Tinto 25-year PPA underpins Bungaban (Windlab, Qld) — 1.15 GW + 1.4 GWh
Implied capex
~$30B implied investment across the 19 projects

DCCEEW announcement →

AEMO Draft 2026 ISP — what 2050 needs vs today

The full system end-state. Largest gap-to-plan: flexible gas, at 0.2 GW in the queue vs 14 GW needed.

Utility wind + solar

120 GW

Today: ~25 GW utility (38 GW with rooftop)

Five times today's utility fleet. ISP 'Step Change' baseline; 'Constrained Delivery' scenario reaches only 75% renewables by 2030.

Grid batteries

32 GW

Today: ~4.4 GW

Seven-fold expansion. 2030 sub-target: 27 GW utility storage — AEMO calls it 'achievable only at accelerated pace'.

Flexible gas

14 GW

Today: ~11 GW

Slight growth — but the pipeline today is 0.2 GW. Largest gap between plan and queue.

Pumped hydro

12 GW

Today: ~2.6 GW (Snowy 1)

Quadrupling. Hinges on Snowy 2.0 (2028) + Borumba (2033+); both schedules slipping, costs blown out.

AEMO Draft 2026 ISP (Dec 2025) extends fleet retirement to FY2049 (was FY2038). Two-thirds of remaining coal still closes by 2035 — the next decade is where the build has to land.

The 25 megaprojects — ~60% of the entire pipeline

From project-pipeline/04_megaproject_profiles.md. The Australian energy build is concentrated — 25 projects across 7 owners cover the bulk of capacity. Filter by category to see only that slice; tap a marker for site detail.

All 25
Wind · 9
Solar · 5
BESS · 5
Pumped hydro · 3
Transmission · 3

Operating

Construction

Early / development

Proposed

🗺️

25 sites on the map

Tap a marker for capacity and build status.

Who's writing the cheques — federal + state capital deployed

~A$30B/yr peak-build investment expected 2027–30. Federal CIS underwriting now dominates new build; CEFC concessional debt + Rewiring the Nation underwrite the transmission spine; PTIs (hydrogen + critical minerals) are the structural lever for the value-add prize.

Fund / schemeSizeBiggest deploymentFocus
Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS)~32 GW awarded T1–T7Tender 7 — 7.8 GW, ~$30B impliedGeneration + storage underwriting. Replacing corporate PPAs as the primary build driver.
CEFC (Clean Energy Finance Corp)$30B+ committedMarinus Link — $3.8B (largest single CEFC commitment)Concessional debt across renewables, transmission, household upgrades. +$2B in 2025–26 Budget.
Rewiring the Nation$19BMarinus, VNI West, HumeLinkFederal underwriting of priority transmission identified in the AEMO ISP.
Future Made in Australia Innovation Fund$1.5B (ARENA-administered)Green metals + low-carbon liquid fuels roundsBridging FOAK industrial decarbonisation projects.
Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive$2/kg · 2027–28 to 2039–40~$8B+ value if Murchison + Hunter + R2 all deliverPer-kg production credit for renewable hydrogen, up to 10 years per project.
Critical Minerals PTI10% of refining costs · 2027–28 to 2039–40~$7B+ value over the periodDown-stream processing of 31 critical minerals — the value-add lever.
NSW LTESAMulti-billion contracts-for-differenceCWO REZ + New England REZ projectsState long-term energy service agreements with strike-price underwriting.
Qld Energy & Jobs Plan$26B (2022–2035)Borumba PH ($18.4B) · CleanCo build-outState-owned generation expansion + pumped hydro.
VicGrid + VRETMulti-billion VRET auctionsStar of the South enabling + REZ buildVictorian REZ planning + offshore wind transmission.

Annual investment trajectory (renewables + storage + transmission)

2024–25

~$15B/yr

2025–26

~$22B/yr — CIS T7 + state schemes ramping

2026–27

~$25B/yr

2027–30

~$30B/yr — peak build

2030–35

~$25B/yr — levels off as targets met

2035–50

~$15B/yr — replacement + offshore + next-gen storage

At-risk + cancelled — the build that's slipping

Capacity that was meant to be in this pipeline and is now paused, cancelled, walked back, or uncertain. Each line moves a major plank of the transition story.

PAUSED

WA

Murchison Green Hydrogen

6 GW scale

March 2026 pause. HPTI cannot fix offtake gap on its own — green hydrogen offtake markets have not formed at the assumed scale.

CANCELLED

QLD

CQ-H2 (Central Queensland)

3 GW electrolyser

Cancelled 2025 after Stanwell + JBIC consortium withdrew. Export-oriented hydrogen thesis broke.

WALKED BACK

SA

Whyalla green steel

DRI-EAF (2027 plan)

SA walked the hydrogen plan back to gas-DRI. Anchor for the Spencer Gulf green-industrial story.

UNCERTAIN

NSW

Tomago Aluminium

590 kt/yr (~25% of AU output)

Viability beyond 2028 hinges on 24/7 firm renewable PPA at competitive price. Under active federal rescue negotiation.

CANCELLED

QLD

Pioneer-Burdekin PHES

5 GW · 120-hr storage

Removed by Crisafulli LNP government 2024. Took ~50% of national long-duration storage pipeline with it.

CANCELLED

SA

SA Office of Hydrogen Power

Hydrogen Jobs Plan

Office disbanded May 2026 — the state's flagship hydrogen industry policy effectively ended.

UNCERTAIN

TAS

Bell Bay aluminium

Hydropower smelter

Post-Marinus economics uncertain — long-term firm hydro pricing not yet locked in.

DELAYED

VIC/NSW

VNI West (Vic)

$3.2B transmission

Vic energise pushed to Nov 2030. Holds back 3.4 GW of new generation that's queued behind it.

What's NOT in the pipeline — and why it matters

From project-pipeline/08_gaps_and_missing.md. The technologies AEMO modelling assumes will exist but no-one is queuing.

Long-duration storage (8+ hours)

Iron-air / flow / gravity batteries are early-commercial globally; almost zero AU deployment beyond a small Form Energy pilot. Pioneer-Burdekin cancellation removed 5 GW + 120 hr.

Near zero

Synchronous condensers

ElectraNet (SA) and Transgrid have a handful operating; no new dedicated builds queued. System-strength gap as coal retires.

None new

Concentrated solar power (CSP)

Vast Renewables' Port Augusta concept paused for capital. No utility CSP in the Australian queue despite world-class solar resource.

Zero

Offshore wind beyond Gippsland

5 of 6 declared zones wound back (Hunter, Illawarra, Bass Strait, Southern Ocean partial). Star of the South is the only credible 2030s offshore.

Effectively zero

Geothermal

Cooper Basin hot-dry-rock work ended 2014. No commercial pipeline.

Zero

Marine renewables (tidal/wave)

King Island + Albany tests historical. No commercial-scale build.

Pilot-only

Cultural heritage assessment infrastructure

Bottleneck on most >500 MW projects. Aboriginal Cultural Heritage frameworks are 4 different state regimes + EPBC. Workforce is dozens, not hundreds.

Severely under-resourced

Renewable + transmission workforce

Jobs and Skills Australia + ARENA modelling exists; ~60–90k workers needed by 2030. No coordinated federal funding pipeline matched to it.

Modelled, not funded
PHANTOM DEMAND

AEMO 2025 IASR

Data-centre connection applications vs credible demand

44 GW

Connection apps

6 GW

Credible demand

AEMO 2025 IASR — data-centre connection applications vs credible demand. 7× over-stated. AEMO →

What's over-supplied

  • Battery storage at 33.2 GW pipeline likely exceeds 2030 deployment capacity — workforce + transformer constraints will throttle delivery.
  • Phantom data-centre demand — AEMO 2025 IASR shows 44 GW of connection applications vs ~6 GW of credible demand.
  • Solar PV in already-congested zones (NSW Riverina, Qld Western Downs) — significant curtailment risk.
  • Onshore wind in contested social-licence areas — projects that may not survive community consultation.

What named operators are saying — public submissions + AGMs

Six named voices from 09_industry_complaints.md + 10_lobby_groups.md + 11_citizen_voice.md. Public positions, not paraphrase.

Tomago Aluminium (Rio Tinto JV)

Wholesale price volatility threatens the smelter beyond 2030. 24/7 firm renewable supply at competitive prices is the binding constraint.

Ask: CIS to underwrite firm 24/7 PPAs · faster HumeLink + Sydney Ring · reliability standard rethink

AFR; Rio Tinto AGM; Senate Standing Committee submissions

BlueScope Steel (Port Kembla)

AEMO's reliability tightening is welcome but transmission build is too slow. Energy cost is the single largest risk on the blast-furnace re-line decision.

Ask: Faster transmission; clearer firmed-supply pathway before FID

BlueScope FY24 results; AEMC Reliability Panel submissions

Alcoa (Portland + Pinjarra)

Portland on multiple government-supported electricity deals; current expires. Pinjarra alumina is gas-intensive — Vic Gas Substitution Roadmap inadequate on industrial heat.

Ask: Long-tenor firm contracts; industrial heat transition pathway

Alcoa Sustainability Report; Victorian Treasury engagement

Australian Energy Producers (ex-APPEA)

Opposes east-coast gas reservation. Says onshore gas (Beetaloo, Surat-Bowen, Cooper) is required to firm the transition.

Ask: No reservation; expedited onshore approvals; PRRT status quo

Federal Lobbyist Register ✓ · public submissions

Clean Energy Council

Connections queue and social-licence are the binding constraints, not generation capex. CIS auctions delivering but workforce + transmission throttle delivery.

Ask: Standing CIS rounds; transmission-aligned approvals; workforce funding

AEMC + AER submissions; AGM

Energy Consumers Australia

Bill shock from time-of-use defaults; falling solar feed-in tariffs without notice; hardship-program access inconsistent retailer-to-retailer.

Ask: Better ToU defaults; FiT transparency; hardship-program standardisation

AER Annual Retail Markets Report; ECA Consumer Sentiment Survey

The research layer — who turns data into answers

Geoscience Australia and the states produce the foundational layers. CSIROis where most of the “answering hard questions with spatial data” actually happens — turning those reference layers into missions, analyses and modelling.

CSIRO — the analytics layer

CSIRO Centre for Earth Observation

Dr Alex Held — leads Australia's 2026 CEOS Chair Team

Institutional home for CSIRO's earth-observation work. Runs Australia's contribution to international EO programs; Australia chairs the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites in 2026.

AquaWatch Australia Mission

Dr Alex Held (Mission Lead) · Janet Anstee (Office Head)

A 'weather forecast for water quality' — satellite + in-situ sensors + ML forecasting algal blooms, sediment and dissolved oxygen across inland and coastal waters. The cleanest live case of a problem solved by geodata.

CSIRO Data61

Prof Liming Zhu — Acting Director

The digital, data, AI and cyber-physical-systems unit. ML, knowledge graphs, simulation and privacy-preserving analytics that touch place-data; a strong voice in responsible AI.

CSIRO Land & Water

Prof Paul Bertsch — Chief

Integrates land, water, ecosystems and environmental modelling. Less visible than EO but underpins water accounting, soil mapping and biodiversity policy science.

Sources

Methodology. This report synthesises the YourGov internal Research/energy-data/ corpus (13 working notes) and its three sub-folders — geo-ecosystem/ (geospatial custodians + CSIRO), industry-energy/ (industrial demand, cost-to-compete, siting) and where-to-build/ (generation technologies, lead times and the four delivery bottlenecks) — all May 2026. Every dataset listed has been spot-checked for current URL and licence at publication. The 14-bucket catalogue audit covers 100+ datasets from the energy-data corpus only; the broader place-data ecosystem is approximated through custodian-level summaries. The industry figures are order-of-magnitude from the Australian Energy Statistics 2025, DISR Resources & Energy Quarterly and AEMO ISP scenarios; plant-level precision needs the NGER scheme. Machine-readability ratings are YourGov-applied per the rubric in 08_data_sources_catalogue.md. Where we cite individuals, the source is a public role page or named interview.